EUR / USD index dropped to 1.1399. WTI crude oil dropped to 44.42 USD / barrel.

Oil prices recovered some of their losses on Monday after a 3 % drop in the previous session. Markets however, remain under pressure due to the increased drilling activity in the US and the huge supply of OPEC. US energy companies have increased their oil wells by 7 last week, marking the 24th for the past 25 weeks with growth. So the number of wells reaches 763, which is their highest level since April 2015, commented energy services company Baker Hughes on Friday. Oil production in the US rose by more than 10% from mid-2016 to 9.34 million barrels per day. While US output is rising, OPEC supplies also remain high, despite the group's promise to cut production between January and March 2018.

Soybeans  price is approaching a three-year peak, corn  hit the maximum for the last year, the price of wheat is rising ....... What better than this ???

Crop prices rose on Monday after the bears lost control of the Black Sea region. There is a tension between wheat prices in the Black Sea region and these in Western Europe, the United States and Canada. As the Egyptian tender on Saturday showed, strong US price increases and to some extent in France are not in line with Russia's price rises. Russian prices remain depressed by the expected big harvest. How will things stabilize - with the rise in Russian prices or decline of the western? The two Egyptian tenders last week were seen as the main reason for the decline in Chicago prices.There was a clear difference in prices. According to ICAR data, last week the price of Russian wheat with protein of 12.5% increased by 5 USD / tonne to 194 USD / tonne. Suvecon estimated the weekly price increase of 6 USD / tonne to 190 - 193 USD / tonne. This was confirmed at the auction in Egypt on Saturday, where the price turned out to be 204.23 USD / tonne FOB. This is close to 4 USD / tonne rise for the last three days of the week. Thus, Russian export prices for wheat reached a 19-month high.

In the northern parts of the United States and Canada, there is a prolonged period of drought and high temperatures. In the coming days, rainfall is not expected, so the poor conditions continue. The yield potential is shrinking every day. Yesterday the USDA again lowered US spring wheat estimates. In good and excellent condition now are 35% of the crops at 37% a week earlier and 70% a year earlier. Drought directly affects wheat and rapeseed in these two countries.

The conditions in the US corn belt worsen , where rainfall is below normal, and from this suffers corn and soybeans. This was the reason for the price rise yesterday. Over the past week, US and US demand for corn and soybeans remains good. Corn exports reached 1.01 million tonnes, down by 140,000 tonnes compared to the previous week, but it is a good value. Soybean exports reached 465,157 tonnes (+200,000), and wheat was 533,872 tonnes (+15,000).Demand is clearly good, but it is for crop 2016 - 2017 for the corn and soybeans. For the new crop there are concerns that affect mostly soybeans that are not sought by buyers, and at the same time the price is rising. Now traders are worried about the prospects for worsening yields in the United States rather than not good demand for the new crops.

In the current week, temperatures in the Midwest of the United States will be within + 32 + 41 degrees, and rainfall will be scarce. We are expecting a dynamic price week that has begun since yesterday. There is rainfall in the next week, which will end the low prices and they will already be high. In the United States over the last 15 years, there have been 5 years with an average yield of corn under 150 bushels / acre. No wonder this is the sixth year for the last 16 years.With an average yield of 150 bushels / acre, the crop will be 317 million tonnes - total confusion in the markets around the world. For now, it is realistic to believe that these conditions will reduce the yield of corn in the US to 160 bushels / acre, and the crop to 338 million tonnes, which will also be a problem and a big one.

In France the harvest of wheat is stopped due to precipitation. They no longer improve the wheat crop but reduce it and aggravate its quality. Precipitation will be useful for corn in France, but the market is silent for it now, that is, no news.
This week will be rich of new data. On Wednesday we look forward to USDA's July report. We are also expecting data from Conab on the Balance of Cultures in Brazil. We expect data from Malaysia about the export and production of palm oil. The changes expected from USDA are not drastic but cosmetic.

Wheat price – yesterday wheat price in Chicago rose sharply by 14.5 - 15.25 cents / bushel. Winter wheat crop in the US is harvested at 67% of the area at 65% last year.

Soybeans price – yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 23 - 24.25 cents / bushel. In good and excellent condition of the soybeans in the US are 62% of the crops at 64% a week earlier and 71% a year earlier. During the past week, 475,157 tonnes of soybeans were exported from the United States (+ 69% over the previous week). During the weekend, Pakistan bought 180,000 tonnes of soybeans from the United States or Brazil. According to Safras and Mercado, farmers in Brazil have sold 67% of their soybeans crops in 2016-2017.

Corn price –  yesterday corn  futures in Chicago rose by 9.5 - 10 cents / bushel. In a good and excellent condition of the UScorn are 65% of the areas at 68% a week earlier and 76% a year earlier. Taiwan is looking to buy 65,000 tonnes of corn from the US.