Market Close Summary – Monday

Wheat

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September 2025 wheat futures closed slightly higher at $5.38½ per bushel, gaining ¼ cent on the day. The market was mixed, with SRW showing marginal gains while HRW and HRS trended flat to slightly negative. Crop Progress data showed the U.S. winter wheat harvest reached 80%, just 1% behind the seasonal norm. However, spring wheat’s quality dipped—only 49% rated good/excellent. Export inspections were also soft, down 38.33% from the same week last year, with Nigeria, Japan, and Mexico leading shipments.

Corn

CBOT September 2025 corn futures ended the session at $3.93¾ per bushel, dropping by 5¾ cents. The bearish momentum continued amid strong export numbers but concerns over crop progress. U.S. corn crop conditions slipped slightly, with 73% rated good/excellent. Despite this, the USDA reported strong weekly corn shipments of 1.522 MMT, a 55% rise from the previous week. Two private sales were also confirmed—225,000 MT to Mexico and 229,000 MT to unknown destinations. Argentina’s decision to reduce its corn export tax from 12% to 9.5% added further pressure.

Soybeans

CBOT August 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.88¾ per bushel, down 10 cents. Soymeal and soyoil prices were mixed, while cash prices fell across the board. The U.S. crop saw improved ratings, with 70% of soybeans now in good/excellent condition. Export inspections were up slightly from last week, totaling over 409,000 MT. Argentina’s announcement of a dramatic tax cut—from 33% to 26% for soybeans and to 24.5% for soymeal and oil—sparked market volatility, increasing South American competitiveness just as U.S. traders monitor harvest and export dynamics.

Global Drivers and Developments

Argentina Slashes Export Tariffs to Spur Agriculture

Argentine President Javier Milei unveiled sweeping reforms, cutting export taxes on soybeans to 26%, soymeal and soyoil to 24.5%, and corn to 9.5%. These changes aim to unburden farmers and restore competitiveness amid low commodity prices. As the world’s largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil, Argentina’s new policy is expected to redraw global trade patterns. Farmers welcomed the move, but some called for further cuts to ensure long-term growth and profitability.

Transatlantic Trade Pact Revives Optimism

The U.S. and EU agreed on the framework of a major trade deal over the weekend. Highlights include zero tariffs on aircraft, semiconductors, some agricultural goods, and energy components. The EU pledged $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases and significant investment in American defense and infrastructure. Although ag-specific terms remain partly disclosed, early signals point toward reduced duties on oilseeds and raw inputs—potentially favoring U.S. grain exports long-term.

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Plummets

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture reported a shocking 45% year-on-year drop in grain production, totaling just 10.3 million tons. Wheat output was halved to 7.1 million tons, and barley declined by 26%. With only 29% of planted area harvested so far, uncertainty looms over Ukraine’s ability to fulfill export contracts, prompting global buyers to seek more stable suppliers.

Improving U.S. Crop Weather Conditions

Despite persistent heat risks in parts of the South, weather conditions across the Midwest, Central, and Northern Plains have improved thanks to scattered rainfall and a cooling trend. Soil moisture has replenished in key growing areas, especially beneficial for corn and soybeans. Analysts now maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for U.S. yields, even as some areas face localized crop stress.

Brazil’s Freight Woes Erode Margins

Brazil’s soybean producers face soaring logistics costs. Freight from Paraná to Paranaguá port has surpassed BRL 200/ton, up 20% from last month. While demand remains high domestically and internationally, transportation costs are squeezing farmer profits. Meanwhile, corn prices have stabilized in São Paulo amid slower harvesting, while Central-West supply continues to suppress broader national prices.

China Pushes for Domestic Ag Consumption

China's Ministry of Agriculture unveiled a new plan aimed at increasing consumption of domestically grown agricultural products. Emphasis will be placed on green and high-quality produce. Although details are limited, analysts expect this initiative to influence short-term demand for grains and oilseeds—especially imports such as soybeans and vegetable oils.

Malaysia Bets on Palm Oil Recovery

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects a rebound in exports in the second half of 2025. Despite a 7.7% drop in the first half of the year, festive demand from India, lower import duties, and improved pricing are seen as recovery drivers. However, India’s rising import taxes on crude palm oil may limit the competitive edge of palm versus soy and sunflower oils.

Australia Eyes Wheat Export Boost

USDA’s attaché in Canberra forecasts stronger wheat exports for 2025–26 thanks to favorable July rains and improved planting conditions. Soil moisture has recovered across southern Australia, raising expectations for both wheat and barley production. While barley exports are expected to dip due to early aggressive sales, the wheat outlook is brightened by strong yields and higher ending stocks.