EUR/USD index rose to 1.1421. WTI crude oil went up to 45.42 USD/barrel.

Global demand for oil will continue to rise over the next decade, with the pressure on energy companies to find new oil to replace the wells to mature and respond to increased demand will rise, according to Saxo Bank. At the same time, they are changing their previous forecast and expecting a reduction in Brent crude oil prices from $ 58 a barrel in the second quarter to $ 53 a barrel at the end of the year.

The main news yesterday, and for the month, were the USDA reports. Forecasts for the grain balance in the world caused a corresponding drop at the commodity exchanges. One was expected, and the report saw something else. More important data is as follows:

Wheat - wheat production in the world is down to 737.83 million tonnes from 739.53 million tonnes in the June forecast and 754.31 million tonnes in 2016-2017. The harvest is reduced for Australia by 1.5 million tonnes to 23.5 million tons, for China by 1 million tons to 130 million tons, for the EU by 0.54 million tons to 150 million tonnes, for Ukraine by 1 million tonnes to 24 million tonnes, US 1.75 million tonnes to 47.89 million tonnes. Growth is quite unexpected for Russia with 3 million tonnes to 72 million tonnes and for Turkey with 1.5 million tonnes to 19.5 million tonnes. Generally, production has been reduced, but in the Black Sea region there is a huge increase of +3.5 million tonnes. The global  ending wheat stocks will be 260.6 million tonnes (261.19 and 258.05).The export of wheat from Russia is expected to reach 30.5 million tonnes (29 and 27.8), and Ukraine 14 million tonnes (14.5 and 18). For the Black Sea region the balance of the years 2016 - 2017 is good.

Corn - corn crop in the world has risen to 1,036.90 million tonnes (1,031.86 and 1,068.79). Growth is mainly due to a shift in US prospects to 362.09 million tonnes (357.27 and 384.78). For the other major manufacturers the changes are insignificant. Corn stocks in the world will be 200.81 million tonnes (194.33 and 227.51). Stock growth is again from the US. In general, the corn in the Black Sea region remains unchanged, i.e. as in the current season.

Soybeans - soybeans production in the world is raised to a minimum of 345.09 million tonnes (344.67 and 351.78). Global stocks of soybeans rose substantially to 93.53 million tonnes (92.22 and 94.78).

Overall, the report inspires bearish sentiments around the world. Perhaps changes of the weather conditions will now affect the next reports. Maybe it will not happen with such a force as the market expects. If this balance remains for the season, prices will not rise significantly from their current levels, even though they may be problems at this stage. The drought in many regions of the world will almost certainly reflect, and USDA analysts will report it.

In this report, USDA analysts rank the top place of Russia as an exporter of wheat in the new season. In 2017 - 2018 30.5 million tonnes of wheat will be exported from the country, with 30 million tonnes from the EU and 26 million tonnes from the United States. The changes are due to the excellent conditions for the development of crops. In connection with this, the forecast for the new crop was increased by 3 million tonnes to 72 million tonnes at 72.53 million tonnes in the previous year, which was a record high. The forecast for the wheat crop in the United States and the EU is down, unlike Russia.

It is interesting to note that wheat stocks in China remain at a very high level of 127.19 million tonnes at 110.99 million tonnes in 2016-2017. Growth is enormous even for China. At the same time, the corn stocks have decreased substantially to 81.28 million tonnes (101.3). The policy of the authorities really changes things, but the direction is not exactly expected.

Soybeans price - yesterday soybeans in Chicago dropped by 8 - 9 cents / bushel. Export sales of soybeans from the US for the past week are expected within 200,000 - 400,000 tonnes of + 50,000 - 200,000 tonnes. Sales of soybeans meal will be 25,000 - 250,000 tonnes, and soybeans oil will be 5,000 - 25,000 tonnes. Pakistan purchased 65,000 tonnes of soybeans from the United States or Brazil.

Corn price – yesterday corn futures in Chicago fell by as much as 16 cents / bushel. Export sales of US corn will be 300,000 - 500,000 tonnes + 50,000 - 200,000 tonnes. In the past week, ethanol production in the US rose by 7,000 barrels per day to 1,007 million barrels a day. US ethanol reserves dropped by 390,000 barrels to 21,181 million barrels a week.

Wheat price – yesterday wheat futures in Chicago declined significantly. SowEcon expects wheat crops in Russia to reach 72.9 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes over the previous forecast. Export sales of wheat from the US will be 300,000 - 500,000 tonnes.

Sovereign and USDA forecasts for wheat crop in Russia are identical. There is obviously a reason !!!! We are also accustomed to this data, although we did not expect them, and even less wanted !!!