EUR / USD index rose to 1.1527. WTI crude oil rose to 46.11 USD / barrel.

Oil sent last week with an increase of about 5% after investors welcomed accelerated demand data in the second half of the year. WTI crude oil rose on Friday by about 1% to $ 46.54 a barrel. The dynamics was helped by the International Energy Agency (IEA) report, according to which acceleration of global demand has accelerated. In addition, there was evidence of growth in oil imports into China and declining US stocks. Baker Hughes, the oil services company, said on Friday that the number of oil platforms in the US rose by 2 to 765, the highest level since April 2015.

The data highlighted the fears that a continued recovery of shale production in the United States could undermine the efforts of other major producers to rebalance the market. So far, the OPEC agreement has had little impact on the global stocks, as there are producers with exceptions such as Libya and Nigeria. On Friday, Kuwait officials said it would be hasty to curb Nigeria and Libya, as both countries have yet to stabilize their production. On July 24, there will be a meeting of OPEC and non-cartel ministers in Russia to discuss the compliance with the deal.

One of the main reasons for the decline in Chicago's futures in the recent days was the positive weather forecast. However, it did not materialize in its initial form and now futures are subjected to lateral movements in anticipation of rainfall development. On the other hand, huge purchases from hedge funds create worries about big long positions to halt the upward movement in prices. For the soybeans a stop was the data for the processing in June in the United States - only 3.76 million tonnes, which is well below the market expectations.Analysts predicted a processing of 3.89 million tonnes and 4.06 million tonnes of soybean processed in May and 3.95 million tonnes in June 2016. The soybeans has also been depressed by the weak exports from the US in the past week - only 285,972 tonnes at 476,136 tonnes a week earlier and analysts' expectations of 300,000-400,000 tonnes.

Yesterday in Chicago corn dropped more modestly. In the past week, US corn exports were 1.11 million tonnes at 1.01 million tonnes a week earlier. Over the next 10 days, corn pollination in the United States will be intense, and temperatures will be above the usual. This raises concerns about lower yields. In addition, there are also relatively dry conditions, which are not from yesterday. The lack of precipitation will play an important role for the spring wheat, corn and soybeans. In some parts of the corn belt rainfall will still exist, but they will not be much and wide spread.

The drought is progressing not only in the US but also in Canada. Here we expect a gradual decline in the forecasts for all crops - wheat, canola, soybeans and corn.
Independent experts from Australia have sharply lowered their forecast for wheat crops in the country in 2017-2018 to 19 - 21 million tonnes. ABARE's June forecast was at 24.1 million tonnes. The reason for the correction is the prolonged drought in large areas of the country.
In Europe, the conditions for the development of the cultures are different - cool and wet weather. Rainfall however, is lacking in Ukraine and Russia, and temperatures are firmly above +30 degrees.

Overall, we can expect that the forecast for wheat crop in the world will continue to be lowered for the new business year. For corn there is an instability of expectations - at one moment high yields are expected, and in the next - low. Soybeans maintain a steady US yield forecast of about 47 bushels / acre.
Again many facts are being gathered to support markets in the coming weeks and months.

Wheat price – Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell by  3 - 4.5 cents / bushel. Weekly export controls for wheat exports from the US are at 578,672 tonnes, which is 7.95% up from the previous week and 29.5% from the previous year. Taiwan is looking to buy 105,150 tonnes of American wheat. 34% of the spring wheat is in good and excellent condition in the US at 35% a week earlier and 69% a year earlier. From winter wheat, 75% of crops are harvested at 73% on average over the last five years.

Soybeans price - yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago fell by 2 - 3 cents / bushel. Weekly export controls of US corne are at the level of 285,972 tonnes (-39.06% and -29.39%). In good and excellent condition are 61% (62% and 71%) of the soybean crops in the United States.

Corn price - yesterday corn futures in Chicago dropped by 1-1.5 cents / bushel. Weekly US export controls of corn are at 1.11 million tonnes (+ 9.77% and -16.5%). In good and excellent condition in the US t are 64% of the crops with corn (65% and 76%). Authorities in China have approved the import of two GM corn varieties of Monsanto and Syngenta

In general, the picture remains variegated with slight predomination of drought in certain regions of the world. This will be a reason for the rising prices in the coming months. On the other hand, high stocks and fairly good yields of all crops cause markets to remain balanced, with no sharp upward movements.