The drought in the US, Canada , Ukraine , China and Australia deepens

On Wednesday corn and soybeans prices in Chicago rose led by the soybeans, and wheat remained stable. In Paris prices declined.

EUR / USD index fell to 1.1518. WTI crude oil rose to 47.09 USD / barrel.

The US Oil Institute said on Tuesday that oil stocks in the US rose by 1.6 million barrels last week. A decline of 3.74 million barrels was expected. Market participants expect later today official data from the US Energy Information Administration. At the end of last week, Baker Hughes, a petroleum service company, reported that oil platforms in the United States have increased by 5 on average in the past five weeks. Their number is an important indicator of drilling activity and serves as a litmus for yield and demand.In Asia, the refinery's activity continues to signal strong demand for the month of June. These data coincided with a report from the International Energy Agency last week predicting that stronger consumption in the second half could offset oversupply. Meanwhile, Ecuador, a member of OPEC, said it could not comply with his 26,000-barrel cut-off quota due to a large budget deficit. Concerns are that other countries in the cartel may follow.

Yesterday the markets were still playing the lot of data from the last week. There was some recovery in Chicago, but in Paris, the drops continued.

Over the next 10 days rainfall in the US will be variable. In the corn belt they will reach 30 l / sq.m., but they will not be massive. In the northern states rainfall is not expected. Temperatures will be about 30 degrees. In Canada temperatures will be + 15 + 30 degrees, almost without precipitation. The dry conditions in North America continue to dominate. Certain crop growth can not be expected, drops should be calculated more accurately. In Ukraine and central parts of Russia rainfall is not expected. In Ukraine drought has become chronic. We can expect a fall in all crops. The drought in China and Australia is continuing.

Canadian mill wheat exports are expected to rise as the US faces a shortage of quality wheat. Despite the drought now, the export of wheat mill from Canada in 2017 - 2018 will increase over the previous year. In 2017 - 2018 wheat production in Canada may reach 22.7 million tonnes, up by 1.3 million tonnes less than the June forecast and 5% less than in the previous year. The decline is due to weaker wheat yields - up to 3.3 tonnes / ha at 3.68 tonnes / ha last year. Higher inventories and less domestic consumption will allow exports to grow to 16.6 million tonnes (15.6). If the drought continues in August and September, the production of spring wheat may drop to 17.2 million tonnes.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 184.82

 -0.22

Corn12.2017

 155.98

 +2.13

Soybeans 11.2017

 371.99

 +3.89

Soybeans meal 12.2017

 368.39

 +3.64

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 184.82

 -0.22

Corn 08.2017

 167.25

 -0.75

Rapeseed 08.2017

 367.50

 -0.75

Rapeseed meal 09.2017

 188.00

  0.00

 

Wheat price –  yesterday wheat futures in Chicago remained stable. Weekly export sales of US wheat are expected at 250,000 - 450,000 tonnes. On Wednesday Taiwan purchased 105,150 tonnes of US wheat. Problems with spring wheat in Canada are increasing and the situation is similar to that in the northern states of the United States. In Russia 14.5 million tonnes of wheat were harvested at an average level of 20.5 million tonnes at the time. So far, wheat yields are very good, according to Russian farmers. Wheat quality is also very good

Soybeans price –  yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 9 - 11 cents / bushel. The hot and dry weather in the US corn belt plays a role in the rising prices and declining the potential of the new crop. Temperatures are expected to reach over +35 degrees. Weekly export sales of US soybeans are expected within 100,000-300,000 tonnes of old crop + 1.4-18 million tonnes of new crop, including the sales to China from the agreement signed two weeks ago. Sales of soybeans meal will be 50,000 - 300,000 tonnes, and soybeans oil will be 5,000 - 30,000 tonnes. In 2017 the palm oil production in Malaysia will grow by 10% compared to average production over the years and will be in the range of 18.7 - 19.5 million tonnes.

Corn price – yesterday corn futures in Chicago dropped by 5.25 - 5.75 cents / bushel. In the week ending 14.07.2017 in the United States 1.026 million barrels of ethanol are produced, up by 19,000 barrels more than the previous week. Stocks of ethanol in the US rose by 956,000 barrels to 22,137 million barrels. Weekly export sales of US corn are expected at 150,000 - 350,000 tonnes + 200,000 - 400,000 tonnes. Argentina's IB increased its forecast for corn crops in the country by 1.5 million tonnes to 49 million tonnes at an USDA estimate of 41 million tonnes.