Technical sales in the end of the month in Chicago

On Monday all crop prices in Chicago dropped moderately. In Paris wheat went down and rapeseed and corn marked minimal increases.

EUR / USD index rose to 1.1826. WTI crude oil rose to 50.18 USD / barrel.

Qatar begins to feel painfully sanctioned by other countries in the region. The Emirates' international currency reserves have fallen to the lowest level of at least 5 years. In June foreign exchange reserves collapsed by 10.4 billion dollars to 24.4 billion dollars, according to data of the central bank. Because of the terrorist accusations, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain discontinued diplomatic ties with Qatar in early June. They urged the small but rich emirate, among other things, to fight terrorism, shrink relations with Shiite Iran, and close its Al Jazeera TV channel. They accuse Qatar of assisting the terrorist groups. For his part, Qatar rejects the allegations of terrorist support.

Yesterday Chicago's crop prices fell moderately. The soybeans was pressed by technical sales at the end of the month and by the less severe meteorological conditions in August. The decision of a US court against the authorities' law to limit the use of biodiesel has not had a significant impact on the markets. Now weather has a negative impact on prices because rainfall coverage in the northern parts of the US is about 55%. Now the dry areas in the US corn belt are 20-25% of the area, which will be a brake to increase yields. Additional pressure on soybeans was the fall in exports last week to 476,186 tonnes from 641,324 tonnes a week earlier. For corn, export levels rose to a minimum of 989,105 tonnes.

According to the data from Brazilian brokers, the corn price in some regions of Moto Grosso has fallen to a record low of 52.88 USD / tonne. Strengthening the Brazilian currency has kept the sales of the new corn crop, and hence the demand for exports. Reduced trade in corn is also seen in the states of Riu Grande de Sul and Parana.

The meteorological weather forecast for the US corn belt is much below the normal temperatures for the mid-month and with no rainfall. Rainfall is expected in the second half of the month, but then it will be too late for many areas with corn and some of those with soybeans. We do not expect record high yields, the question is how much lower they will be. Analysts see the current trade in Chicago corn determined by average yield in 2017 within 166 - 168 bushels / acre. Merchants fear that the combination of high US prices and record low in Brazil will result in imports of Brazilian corn in the North American country.

On the other hand, the warm and dry weather in the southern parts of the EU gives a tune of lower production forecasts for corn in 2017-2018. A month earlier, the European Commission's forecast was 62.1 million tonnes, and now it's down to 58.4 million tonnes. This is the lowest indicator from 2012-2013 until now. The EU corn deficit will be covered by imports up to 15.3 million tonnes from the June forecast of 12.3 million tonnes. This is above the import in 2016 - 2017 - 12.9 million tonnes and over 2007-2008 - 15.1 million tonnes.The crop of soft wheat is reduced by 138.9 million tonnes to 138.6 million tonnes at 134 million tonnes in 2016. Reduced opportunities for corn deliveries between EU countries have already increased exports from Ukraine and Russia. The low possibilities for interchangeability of corn with other crops among EU consumers also create prerequisites for price increases. Analysts believe the new forecasts for corn crop in the EU do not match the prices of this culture in Paris.

We can expect that and Ukraine will be with a decline in the production of corn. Thus, the Black Sea region will definitely maintain higher prices for the culture in 2017-2018.

Authorities in China have adopted a decision to lift restrictions on foreign investment in the country's processing industry, and in particular on the processing of corn. The change is related to the overall strategy for reducing cultural stocks in China. Aggressive industrial expansion is expected to step up with help from others. In 2019 imports of corn into the country could reach 10 million tonnes compared to  the current traditional 3 million tonnes per year.

Drawing a brighter future for the corn - from the new season !!!!

        

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 174.31

 -2.35

Corn 12.2017

 151.41

 -1.26

Soybeans 11.2017

 370.08

 -2.06

Soybeans meal 12.2017

 358.69

 -3.42

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 168.25

 -2.00

Corn 08.2017

 156.00

 +0.75

Rapeseed 08.2017

 371.75

 -3.25

Rapeseed meal 09.2017

 179.00

 -2.00

 

Corn price–  yesterday corn price in Chicago fell by 1 - 3.5 cents / bushel. In good and excellent condition in the United States are 61% of the crops at 62% a week earlier and 76% a year earlier. The USDA reported a private export sale of 150,000 tonnes of new corn crop for Colombia. Weekly US export controls for corn are at 989,195 tonnes, which is slightly above last week's level but 13.57% less than last year.

Wheat price –  yesterday wheat futures prices in Chicago fell by 2 to 6.5 cents / bushel. Weekly US export controls for wheat are at 578,649 tonnes (+ 15.19% and 13.45%). Winter wheat in the US is harvested at 88% of the area at 84% a week earlier and 86% on average over the past five years. Spring wheat is harvested at 9% of the area at an average level of 9% over the past five years. In a good and excellent condition of spring wheat, 31% of the area is 33% a week earlier and 68% a year earlier.

Soybeans price –  yesterday soybean futures fell by 3.75 - 6.5 cents / bushel. In good and excellent condition in the United States are 59% of the soybean areas (57% and 72%) . Weekly export controls for US soybeans are at 476,186 tonnes (+ 15.75% and -19.93%). It is expected that 4 million tonnes of soybeans will be processed in the United States in June.