Grain Highlights

27 Nov, 2017
Grain Highlights
According to November forecast of IGC, in 2017/18, the global corn crop will increase by 5 million to 1,039 million tonnes, compared to the previous forecast. Corn crop in the US increases to 370.3 million tonnes (362.7), and that in the EU to 59.3 million tonnes (59.2).

Wheat

- According to latest IGC forecast, global rice production will be 481.6 million tonnes in 2017/18, down 4.1 million tonnes from the previous year, at 473 million tonnes in 2015/16 and 480 million tonnes in 2014/15. Initial stocks were 123.4 million tonnes (120.7 million tonnes in the previous season). Rice consumption in the world is rising to 484 million tonnes (484) and ending stocks will be 121 million tonnes (123).
- According to IGC's November forecast, in 2017/18 global wheat crop will be 748.9 million tonnes (754 million tonnes in 2016/17). Global consumption of wheat will reach 742 million tonnes (736) and ending stocks 249 million tonnes (242).
- From the beginning of 2017/18 to November 22, 2017 Ukraine exported 163,300 tonnes of flour, which is 31.9% more than the previous year. 162,700 tonnes of milling wheat were exported.
- From the beginning of the season to November 21, 2017, the major suppliers of soft wheat in the EU are Moldova 414,614 tonnes (33.8% of total imports), Ukraine 315,548 tonnes and the US 162,895 tonnes. The major suppliers of hard wheat are Canada 402,366 tonnes (48.2%), the US 134,624 tonnes and Australia 132,161 tonnes.
- The Ministry of Agriculture of Argentina made its first forecast for wheat crop  in the country in 2017/18 - 18 million tonnes.

 

Grain

- Russian barley producers face a record high demand this season and have already exported 3 million tonse Prices are about 20% higher than last year - 189-195 USD / mt. mand is very high on part of Saudi Arabia, which on Friday announced a tender for the purchase of 720,000 tonnesf barley.

- According to latest forecast by Agroconsult, corn production in Brazil in 2017/18 will reach 94.4 million tonnes given a previous forecast of 95.3 million tonnes.

- Saudi Arabia announced a tender for the purchase of 720,000 tonnes of feed barley for January – February shipment.

- The Brazilian Anec Grain Exporter Association raised its forecast for corn  export from Brazil in 2017 to 33 million tonnes at 30 million tonnes in the previous forecast. From the start of the season in the EU, corn import is 64% higher than the previous year and Brazil supplies over 57% of this corn. Due to low grain prices, exporters' financial performance is the worst for the past 10 years.

- From the beginning of the season to November 21 2017, the major suppliers of barley in the EU are Ukraine, 210,833 tonnes (69.7%), Moldova 83,119 tonnes and Serbia 7,536 tonnes. The major suppliers of corn are Brazil 3.154 million tonnes (57.4%), Ukraine 1.458 million tonnes and the US 339,108 tonnes.

- According to November forecast of IGC, in 2017/18, the global corn crop will increase by 5 million to 1,039 million tonnes, compared to the previous forecast. Corn crop in the US increases to 370.3 million tonnes (362.7), and that in the EU to 59.3 million tonnes (59.2). For Ukraine, the forecast is down to 25.5 million tonnes (27). Global  consumption of corn will be 1,069 million tonnes (1,053). Ending stocks during the season will reach 205.5 million tonnes (-30 million tonnes versus 2015/16), incl. Brazil 9.4 million tonnes (10.4 million tonnes in the previous season), the EU 5.1 million tonnes (6.3) and China 76 million tonnes (102).

 

Oil crops and vegetable oils

- From the beginning of 2017/18 to November 21, 2017, 6.5 million tonnes of oilseeds were imported into the EU, soybean 4.7 million tonnes (-9% compared to last season), rapeseed 1.6 million tonnes (+ 70%), sunflower 178,000 tonnes (-45%). The main importers of soybean in the EU are Spain 1.2 million tonnes and the Netherlands 1.3 million tonnes, of rapeseed the Netherlands 525,900 tonnes, sunflower Romania 72,400 tonnes. The main suppliers are: for soybean USA 1.77 million tonnes and Brazil 1.62 million tonnes, for rapeseed Ukraine 1.31 million tonnes, for sunflower Moldova 121,000 tonnes. EU soybean export is 160,600 tonnes, rapeseed 104,600 tonnes, sunflower 95,400 tonnes.

- According to latest IGC forecast, in 2017/18 global  soybean crop will fall to 347.8 million tonnes (-2.3 million tonnes versus 2016/17), 314.8 million tonnes in 2015/16. Initial stocks are 45.1 million tonnes (31.6), consumption 351.7 million tonnes (336.8), and ending stocks will be 41.1 million tonnes (-4).

- According to data from the Rosario Grain Exchange, last week in Argentina there is a rapid sowing of soybeans - 4.6 million acres for the period.

- According to latest forecast by Agroconsult, soybean production in Brazil in 2017/18 will reach 111 million tonnes, which is unchanged from the September forecast. Soybean areas are expected to grow by 3% over last year to 35 million hectares. Under good weather conditions, the soybean crop could reach 115 million tons. Exports of soybean from the country will be 66 - 67 million tonnes.

- In September, 2.37 million tonnes of palm oil were exported from Indonesia at 1.86 million tonnes a year earlier. In the first nine months of 2017, 20.5 million tonnes of palm oil (+4.5) were exported from the country. From January to September, Indonesia produced 27 million tonnes of palm oil (+ 18%).

- During the period January - September, 621,000 tonnes of palm oil were imported into Russia, which was 5.6% less than the previous year.

- According to Oil World, in October the processing of soybean in Argentina drops to 3.57 million tonnes, which is 4% less than the quantity in October 2016 - 3.7 million tonnes. Sunflower processing grows to 176,000 tonnes (129,000). At the beginning of November, soybean oil stocks in the country are 267,000 tonnes (342,000), and that of sunflower is 0.46 million tonnes (0.57).

- According to Oil World, in 2016/17 import of the four major oils in the EU increased to 9.8 million tonnes, incl. sunflower oil to the record 1.87 million tonnes (1.53). Consumption of sunflower oil in the EU reaches a maximum of 4.5 million tonnes (+ 15% versus 2015/16). Import of palm oil is also at record high - 7.5 million tonnes (+ 3%), soybean oil drops to 291,000 tonnes (326,000), and rapeseed to 162,000 tonnes (202,000). Rice oil consumption in the EU is the lowest in the past three years - 10 million tonnes against the backdrop of its high price.