Grain Highlights 01.12.2020

ABARES has raised its expectations of the wheat production in Australia in 2020/21 to 31.17 million tons from 28.91 million tons in their previous forecast.

Latest news

- During the week of November 23 - 29, 485,104 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk. This is 27.8% more than the previous week and 31.4% more than the previous year. The exported wheat is 389,104 tons and barley 66,000 tons.

- The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia announced that the country may increase the duty-free quota for wheat exports from 15 million tons to 17.5 million tons.  

- During the week of November 16-22, 58,000 tons of sunflower oil were exported from Russian ports.

- During the period 1 - 27 November, Ukraine exported 1.02 million tons of wheat, and since the beginning of the season exported wheat amounts to 11.83 million tons, which is 1.32 million tons less than 2019. Exports of corn were 5.2 million tons (- 1.64).

- As of November 26, 2020, 26.3 million tons of corn were harvested in Ukraine at an average yield of 5.23 tons / hectare. In Russia, 13.8 million tons of corn were harvested at an average yield of 5.42 tons / hectare. Thus, for the second time since the collapse of the USSR, production in Russia will exceed that in Ukraine.

- In 2020, the average yield of sunflower in Ukraine will be 2.06 tons / hectrare, which is 20% less than in 2019 - 2.56 tons / hectare.

- The Egyptian government has announced that the country's wheat reserves are sufficient to meet domestic demand for more than 5 months and vegetable oils for 5 months. A new tender to buy wheat usually follows after such an announcement. Given that the last tender was announced with a long delay compared to the previous one and only 175,000 tons of wheat were bought at it, it is almost certain that we will see a new tender by the end of the week.

- Last week, the Chinese authorities sold 674,796 tons of wheat from the state reserves, which is 16.76% of the proposed amount. The average conversion price is 355.34 USD / ton.

- ABARES has raised its expectations of wheat production in Australia in 2020/21 to 31.17 million tons from 28.91 million tons in the forecast from September. This is well above other estimates for production and well below the record of 2016/17 - 35 million tons. The big harvest will lower domestic crop prices, which reached a six-year high in October.

- The Government of Indonesia has announced that the export duty on palm oil in December will be increased to 33 USD / ton from 3 USD / ton in November. This was expected given the rising price of the product.

- The Indonesian government has significantly lowered its forecast for the country's 2021 corn production to 24.2 million tons from 26 million tons in the forecast from June. In 2020, the production was 30.35 million tons. The rice production is predicted to reach 58.5 million tons (55.16 million tons in the June estimate and 63.5 million tons in the previous year). The palm oil production is estimated at 49.51 million tons.