Grain Highlights 12.02.2021

Conab has raised its forecast for the soybean production in Brazil by 0.125 million tons to 133.8 million tons. The corn production is projected at 105.48 million tons (102.31 million tons from the January report and 102.51 million tons for the previous year).

- According to preliminary data from NOPA, in January, US soybean crush reached the third largest result in history of 4.87 million tons (4.81 million tons in Jan 2020 and 4.98 million tons in Dec 2019).

- Conab has raised its forecast for the soybean production in Brazil by 0.125 million tons to 133.8 million tons. The corn production is projected at 105.48 million tons (102.31 million tons from the January report and 102.51 million tons for the previous year). The forecast for the second corn production was increased by 3.3 million tons to 80.07 million tons, which is 5 million tons more than the previous year. Corn exports in 2020/21 will be 35 million tons (35 and 34.9) and ending corn stocks are expected at 9.9 million tons (7.3 and 10.6).

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 23% of soybean crops are now in good and excellent condition in Argentina (19% a week earlier), 69% (72% and 34%) are in fair condition and 8% are in poor and very bad (9%).

- As of Feb 10, 2021, only 13.7% of the sunseed areas were harvested in Argentina, 20.6% lower compared to last year (-19.6% a week earlier). The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is currently forecasting a production of 2.9 million tons, but warns that declines can be expected.

- The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its forecast for the soybean production in Argentina from 47 million tons to 49 million tons and the estimate for the corn production from 46 million tons to 48.5 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its forecasts for the corn and soybean production unchanged at 46 million tons each.

- During the week of Jan 25-31, soybean exports from Russia reached 603,800 tons, which is a new record for the country. 601,000 tons of soybeans were exported to China. From 01.02.2021, an export tax on soybean of 30% will be applied (not less than 165 EUR/ton).

- According to the European Commission's forecast, in 2020/21 rapeseed imports into the EU (excluding the UK) were 5.2 million tons compared to 6.2 million tons in 2019/20. Stratégie Grains increased its forecast for rapeseed imports to a record 6.7 million tons from 5.9 million tons in the previous estimate. In the first 6 months of the season, rapeseed imports reached 3.53 million tons (3.77), including 2.13 million tons from Ukraine (60%) and 1.2 million tons from Canada (34%).
In January, however, Australia increased exports to the EU to 0.4-0.5 million tons.

- In January, India imported 780,700 tons of palm oil (+31% compared to Jan 2019), 88,660 tons of soyoil (-66%) and 205,200 tons of sunseed oil (-32%).

- Over the period Feb 1-10, wheat imports to Egypt reached 468 000 tons compared to 394 800 tons for the same period in January.