Grains Market Overview 06.04.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat and soybean futures price rose. The price of corn from the old crop fell and futures prices for the new corn crop increased in Chicago. In Paris, the stock exchange was closed.

The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.1817. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to 58.96 USD/barrel.

Oil prices fell by more than 4% after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies decided to begin a gradual increase in production in May. The sharp drop in oil futures after the three-day long weekend for Easter is a fact despite a series of data showing a strong rebound in the US economy and despite expectations for an increase in oil consumption this year.

Chicago Contract USD/mt  +/-
SRW Wheat  May 227.08 +2.57
Corn  May 217.81 -2.56
Soybeans  May 519.10 +3.95
Soymeal  May 447.88 -4.30








Yesterday, CBOT May SRW wheat futures prices rose by 7 cents to close at $6.18 a bushel. The weather during the week will remain dry in the southern plains of the United States and this also affected prices. Overall, the good condition of crops in the Northern Hemisphere is setting conditions for continuous price pressure. For the week ended on April 5, 2021, the export inspections of wheat from the US are at the level of 594,032 tons (306,579 tons a week earlier and 350,190 tons a year earlier). Since the beginning of the season, total export inspections of wheat are 20.90 million tons (20.83). Saudi Arabia bought 295,000 tons of wheat and Egypt will hold a tender to buy wheat today. As of April 4, 2021, 62% of wheat crops in good and excellent condition in the United States, up from 53% a year earlier. 5% of the planned areas are sown with spring wheat (4% on average for the last five years). The USDA announced the export sale of 130,000 tons of wheat from a new crop to an unknown destination. 87% of the areas with winter wheat are in good and excellent condition in France. According to the forecast of APC - Inform, the wheat production in Ukraine will be 27.5 million tons in 2021, which is 10% more than in 2020/21. Wheat exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 19.8 million tons in 2021 (+13%). SovEcon lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in 2020/21 by 0.2 million tons to a total of 38.9 million tons. Since the beginning of the year, Chinese authorities have sold 25 million tons of wheat from the state reserve in attempts to lower corn prices.

Yesterday, Chicago May corn futures prices fell by 6 1/2 cents to close at $5.53 1/4 a bushel. Traders sold contracts from the old crop and bought contracts for the new corn crop. On Friday, the USDA will publish its April report on the state of the world's grain balance. Given strong exports and domestic consumption, there is a good chance that ending US corn stocks will decline further. The weekly export inspections of corn from the US were 1,912,211 tons (1,720,251 tons and 1,279,364). Since the beginning of the season, total export inspections have reached 35.68 million tons (19.44). As of 04.04.2021, 2% of the areas planned for corn have been sown in the United States (2% on average for the last five years). According to the forecast of APC - Inform, the corn production in Ukraine will reach 35.7 million tons in 2021/22 (+19%) and corn exports are projected at 29.5 million tons (+27%). After the significant sales of wheat from the state reserve in China and strong imports of corn and soybeans, domestic corn prices have fallen by 10% since the beginning of the year. Last week, 2 million tons of rice were sold directly to feed manufacturers.

Yesterday, the prices of May soybean futures in Chicago increased by 10 3/4 cents to close at $14.12 3/4 a bushel. There seems to be a battle for areas of new crops between soybeans and corn. Weekly export inspections of soybeans from the United States were 298,252 tons (439,930 and 301,111), and since the beginning of the season they add up to a total of 54.39 million tons (31.81). On Friday, the USDA report is likely to show low ending soybean stocks in the United States. Attention will be focused on soybean productions in South America and how fast exports are going. Malaysia's palm oil stocks will fall for the third consecutive year to 1.12 million tons by the end of 2021 from 1.27 million tons at the end of 2020.