Grains Market Overview 29.06.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat, corn and soybean futures prices rose significantly. In Paris, wheat and corn futures prices increased moderately, while rapeseed prices rose sharply.

The currency pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1926. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to 72.91 USD/barrel.

The price of oil has fallen since reaching its highest level since 2018. This is against the background of the upcoming meeting of the OPEC+ group, which is expected to lead to an increase in production, but not enough to keep pace with the recovery of demand.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat September 239.39 +3.95
Corn December 215.44 +11.02
Soybeans November 482.26 +15.71
Soymeal December 389.45 +4.85

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 203.00 +1.50
Corn June 239.00 +1.75
Rapeseed August 518.00 +11.00

 

Yesterday, CBOT SRW September wheat futures prices rose by 10 3/4 cents to close at $6.51 1/2 a bushel. As of June 27, 2021, 33% of the winter wheat areas in the United States have been harvested (17% a week earlier and 40% on average for the last five years). 48% of the winter wheat crops (49% a week earlier and 52% a year earlier) and 20% of the spring wheat crops (27% and 69%) are in good and excellent condition. In the week ended 24.06.2021, the export inspections of wheat from the United States were 285,654 tons (551,490 tons a week earlier and 515,359 tons a year earlier). Since the beginning of the season, total export inspections of US wheat add up to 1.53 million tons (2.0). In Canada, wheat areas are expected to reach 23.3 million acres in 2021, which will be unchanged from the April estimate. The report will be published on 29.06.6021. Ethiopia is looking to buy 400,000 tons of wheat and Turkey is looking to buy 395,000 tons of red milling wheat. Yesterday, Egypt's state-owned company GASC bought 180,000 tons of Romanian wheat. For the second time in a row, Romania has won a tender in Egypt. The competition will be very strong in the new season. On the tender, there were 8 proposals from Romania, 1 from France, 6 from Russia and 5 from Ukraine. In the last two weeks, wheat exports from Russia have been excellent and reached 1.2 million tons. This and the high Russian export tax did not allow the Russian production to get a competitive price at the tender in Egypt.

Yesterday, CBOT December corn futures in Chicago increased by 28 cents to close at $5.47 1/4 a bushel. The market finally reacted to the dry western part of the US Corn Belt. 64% of the corn crops (65% and 73%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. Prices were also supported by potential frosts in Brazil, which could have a negative impact on the corn crops in the southern parts of the country, which were sown late. In Brazil, 5% of second-harvest corn crops have been harvested and yields are below expectations. The USDA attache in Brazil predicts a corn production of 94 million tons, which is 11 million tons less than the May estimate. StatCan is expected to set corn areas estimate in Canada at 3.6 million acres - unchanged from April. The weekly export inspections of corn from the United States were 1.01 million tons (1.78 and 1.24) and export inspections of US corn totaled 56.82 million tons since the beginning of the season (33.34). Authorities in China have announced that they will start buying pork to replenish the state reserve. The hog/corn ratio fell to 4.9/1 compared to the official 5/1 benchmark. It has already been reported that many small farmers are currently operating at a loss and the authorities will try to help this segment. After the creation of many large pig farms in the country, animal husbandry is becoming more and more industrial.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices rose by 42 3/4 cents to close at $13.12 1/2 a bushel. It rained over the weekend in large areas of the Midwest, but in some places it rained a lot. In other areas, the drought continues. In general, the market assessed that prices from Friday were low and soybean futures prices rose on Monday. Not much new precipitation is expected over the next 10 days. 60% of soybean crops (60% and 71%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. The weekly export inspections of soybeans from the United States are at the level of 103.965 tons (205.155 and 334.642) and since the beginning of the season they add up to a total of 57.19 million tons (36.82). Soybean areas in Canada are expected to reach 5.4 million acres (+62,000) and rapeseed areas are projected at 22.4 million acres (+900,000). The soybean price in Brazil is falling mainly due to the cheaper soyoil and soymeal.

Analysts expect the data from the USDA report on 30.06.2021 to be bullish and therefore predict a steady growth on markets.