Grains Market Overview 14.07.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat futures prices fell and corn and soybean futures prices rose. In Paris, wheat, corn and rapeseed futures prices rose.

The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.1776. The price of US WTI crude oil rose to 75.25 USD/barrel.

Oil price rose as the market reassessed demand prospects given the return of COVID-19. Analysts say what is happening now is similar to the beginning of the year, when demand accelerated, Europe began to recover, but a health crisis erupted in India, followed by Southeast Asia.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat September 232.86 -2.57
Corn December 212.88 +3.05
Soybeans November 496.68 +0.55
Soymeal December 396.83 -2.76

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 202.50 +3.50
Corn June 236.00 +1.00
Rapeseed August 547.50 +5.75

 

Yesterday, CBOT SRW September wheat futures prices fell by 7 cents to close at $6.33 3/4 a bushel. The wheat market remains calm despite reduced forecasts for spring wheat production in the United States. The USDA report from Monday shows that winter wheat yields in Texas are at their highest level since 2007 and reach the record of 37 bushels/acre. Yields in Oklahoma are also at a record level of 40 bushels/acre. Wheat yields in Kansas is at its second highest level of all time - 55 bushels/acre. The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine raised its forecast for the wheat production in the country to 29.5 million tons compared to 28.8 million tons a month ago. SovEcon lowered its forecast for the Russian wheat production by 2.3 million tons to 82.3 million tons. Overall, the wheat market around the world is tightening supplies more than expected after crop adjustments in the United States, Russia and Kazakhstan. The adjustments are not significant, but they still lead to changes in prices.

Yesterday, the price of December corn futures in Chicago increased by 7 3/4 cents to close at $5.40 3/4 a bushel. After solid gains on Monday given the forecast for dry and warm weather in the northwestern regions of the Midwestern United States, traders came out of short positions and increased long ones. While some American farmers expect to see a really high corn production, others are worried about very low production. With ending corn stocks of 28 million tons for the current season, the new corn crop should be excellent. Chinese state-owned company Sinograin will hold a tender on Friday for the purchase of 925,000 tons of Ukrainian corn. In July, 3.04 million tons of corn will be exported from Brazil, according to Anec's forecast, which is 28% more than the forecast from the previous week.

In order for Chicago corn price to rise to 6 - 7.5 USD/bushel, massive Chinese purchases are needed. So far, there are no expectations for such massive purchases. Despite the uneven rainfall in the United States, there are rumors on the market that Cargill expects an average corn yield of 182 bushels/acre. Corn prices in China remain stable as soybean prices gradually rise after declining in recent days.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices rose by 1 1/2 cents to close at $13.51 3/4 a bushel. Yesterday, soybean futures were supported by rising soyoil prices. Low stocks, record demand in 2021 and uncertainty about the new soybean production suggest that prices must further increase. The much higher rapeseed prices due to the drought in Canada also support the entire oil sector. Historically, prices are now above average and, under normal production, farmers are encouraged to sell ahead. It should be noted that continuous rainfall will be required to achieve an average soybean yield in the United States of 50.8 bushels/acre in the northwestern regions of the Midwest. If demand is maintained at the current levels, prices will have to rise in case of bad weather. In June, China imported 10.72 million tons of soybeans, the third highest level in history. Yesterday, oil prices around the world rose due to complex reasons. Palm oil prices in India rose by 6% even after the import tax was reduced. It will rain in parts of Canada's productive areas in the coming days. Precipitation is not expected to be in large volumes, but it will still be beneficial for crops.