Grain Highlights 01.10.2021

From 01.10.2021, the export tax on Russian sunseed oil will be 227.2 USD/ton compared to 169.9 USD/ton in September.

- From 01.10.2021, the export tax on Russian sunseed oil will be 227.2 USD/ton compared to 169.9 USD/ton in September. The sunseed oil production is expected to be around 15 million tons. The sunseed oil production in Ukraine will also be excellent, albeit late. Looking forward to next summer, the price of sunseed oil will fall, and hence the price of sunseed. The export tax on wheat will be 57.8 USD/ton (53.5 now), 43.1 USD/ton on barley (35.3) and 45.2 USD/ton on corn (46.3).

- In August, 1.7 million tons of barley were exported from Ukraine, which is 56% more than in July and 30% more than in August 2020/21. Since the beginning of the season, exports have reached 2.8 million tons, which is a record for the period. The main buyer is China with a share of 24%, followed by Turkey with 366,000 tons (23,000 years earlier), Tunisia with a growth of +41%, Jordan with a growth of +12%, Morocco with a growth of +500%, Lebanon with a growth of +800% and Algeria with a growth of +300%. The share of Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Israel is declining.

- The European Commission has raised its forecast for the wheat production in the EU in 2021/22 by +3.8 million tons compared to a month earlier to 117.1 million tons. Ending wheat stocks for the season were also increased by 4 million tons to 13.2 million tons and 7.7 million tons in 2020/21. Domestic wheat consumption is projected to reach 97 million tons (-0.2 and 93.6) and wheat exports are expected at 30 million tons (30 and 27.4). The corn production estimate was reduced by 2.2 million tons to 68.8 million tons (65.3 million tons in 2020/21). Domestic consumption of corn in the EU is expected to reach 81 million tons (+0.7 compared to 2020/21) and ending corn stocks in the EU are estimated at 16.2 million tons (1.5 compared to 2020/21).

- According to FranceAgriMer, rainfall in France is delaying the harvesting campaign of corn. As of September 27, 2021, 2% of the areas have been harvested (+1% are the week and 31% a year earlier).

- According to USDA data, wheat stocks in the United States were 48.44 million tons as of 01.09.2021 (-18% compared to 01.09.2020) and -4% compared to market expectations (these are the initial stocks for 2021/22). In 2021/22, the US wheat production reached 44.9 million tons (-10% compared to 2020/21, -5% compared to market expectations and -3% compared to the September forecast of the USDA). US corn stocks were 46.2 million tons (49.8 for 2020/21).

- The authorities in China left the quota for tax-free wheat imports in the country unchanged when compared to 2020/21. For 2021/22, it will be 9.636 million tons.

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the sowing campaign of 2021/22 corn was carried out on 1.19 million hectares in Argentina, which is 16.8% of the planned 7.1 million hectares (+8% for the week). Sunseed was sown on 438,800 hectares (26.6%). 20% of the crops are in good and excellent condition (+11% a week earlier), 75% in satisfactory (73%) and 5% in poor (16%).

- Tunisia has announced a tender for the purchase of 125,000 tons of milled wheat and 100.00 tons of feed barley with delivery within November - December.

- Pakistan has held a tender for the purchase of 640,000 tons of wheat at prices of 377.00 - 410.00 USD/ton C&F and delivery within January - February.