Grain Highlights 06.05.2022

According to the forecast of the Russian Grains Union, the wheat production in the country will be 87 million tons in 2022, which is above the current record of 86 million tons set back in 2017.

- According to the forecast of the Russian Grains Union, the wheat production in the country will be 87 million tons in 2022, which is above the current record of 86 million tons set back in 2017. The total grain production will exceed 130 million tons. In 2021, the grain production was 121.4 million tons, including wheat production of 76 million tons.

- In the week starting on 13.05.2022, the export tax on Russian wheat will reach 114.3 USD/ton (120.1 week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 74.1 USD/ton (73.5) and the export tax on corn will be 77 USD/ton (58.3).

- In 2022, 14.139 million hectares will be sown with the main spring crops in Ukraine (-2.778 compared to 2021). 186,100 hectares of spring wheat, 853,800 hectares of spring barley, 26,200 hectares of spring rape, 1,977 million hectares of corn, 2,399 million hectares of sunseed and 335,500 hectares of soybeans have already been sown.

- Over the period 01.07.2021 - 05.05.2022, 46.001 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine. Exports of flour reached 69,700 tons, including 68,200 tons of wheat flour.

- According to data from the European Commission, in the week of April 25 - May 1, 2022, 251,100 tons of soft wheat were exported from the EU (239,600 a week earlier). The main exporters were France with 123,200 tons, Poland with 81,900 tons and Latvia with 28,100 tons. Since the beginning of the season, exports reach 21.95 million tons (-4%), including 3.23 million tons for Algeria (14.8% share), 2.36 million tons for Egypt (10.8%), 2.08 million tons for China (9.5%), 1.65 million tons for Nigeria (7.5%) and 1.26 million tons for Morocco (5.7%). Exports of durum are 840,000 tons (365,800) and corn exports reach 4.9 million tons (2.18).

- According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 02.05.2022, 89% of winter wheat crops (91% a week earlier and 79% a year earlier) are in good and excellent condition in France. 86% of the winter barley crops are also in good and excellent condition in France (87% before week). 88% of the spring barley crops are in good and excellent condition (91%). 84% of the planned areas for corn have been sown (+24% for the week and 87%).

- Refinitiv has lowered its forecast for the US corn production in 2022/23 to 368.3 million tons (383.9 in 2021/22). Corn areas are expected to reach 36.7 million hectares (-1.1).

- The Institute of Agrarian Economics of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso forecasts an average yield of second corn crop in 2021/22 of 99 bushels/acre, which is 3.2% below the previous estimate. Corn areas are 6.31 million hectares (+8.1% compared to 2020/21). The corn production is projected to reach 39.3 million tons (-2.9% and +20.8%).

- 11.5 million tons of soybeans were exported from Brazil in April (16.1 in April 2021). In March, exports amounted to 12.3 million tons. Exports are expected to fall to 8 million tons in May, according to an Anec report. In the first week of May, soybean exports were 2.93 million tons and corn exports were 421,880 tons. According to Conab, 94% of the soybean areas have been harvested in Brazil.

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of 05.05.2022, 54.7% of the soybean areas have been harvested in Argentina (+8.7% per week) at an average yield of 3.09 tons/hectare.

- According to Oil World data, a record 858,000 tons of canola were exported from Australia in March (609,000 tonnes in February and 749,000 tonnes in March 2021). Over the period of January - March, exports were 0.7 million tons (+44%). The largest customers are the EU with 648,000 tons (443,000 and 537,000), the United Kingdom with 56,000 tons (0 and 61,000), Japan with 57,000 tons (57,000 and 1,000) and the UAE with 52,000 tons (51,000 and 55,000).

- According to Reuters, at the end of April, palm oil stocks in Malaysia were 1.55 million tons (+5.2% for the month), palm oil production was 1.48 million tons (+4.9%), palm oil exports were 1.2 million tons (-5.6%) and imports were 95,000 tons (+12%). Analysts had expected exports to fall by 13.6-16% in April, but this has not materialized due to restrictions imposed by Indonesia. The market expects palm oil exports from Indonesia to fall by 1.3 million tons to 1.5 million tons.

- In March, imports of sunseed oil in Turkey were 71,000 tons (119,000 in March 2021). In April, imports reached 150,000 - 170,000 tons, and over the period of April - September, sunseed oil imports totaled 500,000 - 550,000 tons (296,000). In March, there were no deliveries from Ukraine (5,000), and in February they were 12,000 tons. In March, deliveries from Russia were 70,000 tons, compared to an average of 60,000 tons over the past five years.

- Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of milling wheat at prices of 445.49 - 463.79 USD/ton of C&F and 75,000 tons of barley at prices of 432.89 - 438.49 USD/ton of C&F and deliveries in May.