Grain Highlights 24.05.2022

According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 16.05.2022, 73% of winter wheat crops are in good and excellent condition in France (82% a week earlier and 79% a year earlier).

- In the past week, 196,800 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (+65% compared to the previous week), including 164,800 tons of wheat and 32,000 tons of corn. Wheat was sent to Iran and Turkey, and corn to Libya.

- Over the period of 01.07.2021 - 23.05.2022, 34.15 million tons of wheat were exported from Russia (-11% compared to the previous year). The total grain export is 38.5 million tons (-20%). By the end of the season (June 30), another 850,000 tons of wheat will be exported. Barley exports and corn exports are 40% below last year's levels.

- Russia Grain Union expects grain exports from Russia to reach 40 million tons in 2021/22 and the quota for wheat to be fully met. In 2022/23, the total grain production will be 128 million tons, including 85 million tons of wheat.

- Spring barley areas in Ukraine reach 926,000 hectares, which is 35% less than the previous year, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association. Total barley areas reached 1.85 million hectares (-20%).

- MARS expects an average yield of soft wheat in the EU in 2022/23 of 5.89 tons/hectare (-1% compared to the previous estimate and -2% compared to 2021/22). The average yield of winter barley is estimated at 5.78 tons/hectare (-0.2% and -5%). The average corn yield is projected at 7.92 tons/hectare (7.91 in the previous estimate), and the average rapeseed yield will be 3.19 tons/hectare (-0.6%).

- According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 16.05.2022, 73% of winter wheat crops are in good and excellent condition in France (82% a week earlier and 79% a year earlier). The decline is due to prolonged drought. 71% of the winter barley crops (77% and 68%) and 69% of the spring barley crops (76% and 84%) are in good and excellent condition. The sowing campaign of corn has been completed on 98% of the planned areas (+7% and 97%).

- As of May 22, 2022, 49% of the planned areas in the United States have been sown with spring wheat, which is the lowest level for the last 20 years.

- On Friday, commodity funds in Chicago were net sellers of 10,500 contracts of wheat and 5,500 contracts of soybeans and net buyers of 4,000 contracts of soybeans. On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of 5,000 corn contracts and 9,000 wheat contracts and net sellers of 8,000 soybean contracts.

- In their May report, analysts from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised their forecast for the wheat production in Canada in 2022/23 by 0.4 million tons to 31.6 million tons (21.7 in 2021/22). Wheat xports are expected at 21.9 million tons (+0.3 compared to the previous forecast, 15.3 in 2021/22 and 26.3 in 2020/21). Domestic consumption will reach 8.4 million tons (-0.4 compared to 2021/22) and ending stocks are expected to reach 5 million tons (-1.4).

- In April, 6.3 million tons of soybeans were imported from Brazil to China (+120% compared to March and 5.08 in April 2021). 1.64 million tons of soybeans (3.37 and 2.15) were delivered from the United States to China in April. In the first 4 months of the year, soybean imports to China were 12.7 million tons from Brazil (6.42) and 15 million tons from the United States (21.27). Since the beginning of March, the margin of Chinese soybean processors has fallen sharply to -282 yuan/ton.

- In March, a record 857,800 tons of canola were exported from Australia, which is 41% more than in February - 608,500 tons (748,900 tons in March 2021). The largest customers were Belgium with 193,700 tons, Germany with 183,200 tons, France with 147,800 tons and the Netherlands with 123,200 tons. Over the period of January - March, exports amounted to 2.1 million tons (538,600 throughout October - December).

- Indonesia does not plan to reduce the blending of the biocomponent in biodiesel, which is now 30%. The aim is to ensure the country's energy security. In the event that oil prices fall, then a shift of up to 20% is possible.

- The Indonesian authorities will introduce mandatory sales of some products on the domestic market in order to meet the consumption of 10 million tons of palm oil. This will happen after the lifting of the export ban on 23.05.2022.

- According to government data, wheat stocks in Egypt are sufficient enough to cover domestic consumption for 4.1 months.