Grain Highlights 06.07.2022

According to the latest forecast of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the grain production in Ukraine will reach 69.4 million tons in 2022 (66.5 in the previous estimate), and grain exports will reach 31.5 million tons with a significant increase in the capacity of the export routes.

- In the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, which is now under Russian control, three ships with a total of 20,000 tons of grain are being loaded. Kazakhstan may terminate the contract for leasing the ship detained in Turkey. The ship is owned by the Kazakh company KTZ Express. Ukraine has sent a signal to Turkey to check 3 more Russian-flagged ships carrying most likely Ukrainian grain.

- According to the latest forecast of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the grain production in Ukraine will reach 69.4 million tons in 2022 (66.5 in the previous estimate), and grain exports will reach 31.5 million tons with a significant increase in the capacity of the export routes. In the current situation, the export will be 25-30 million tons. Ending grain stocks in 2021/22 will be 25.9 million tons. In 2022/23, stocks are expected to reach 36.6 million tons according to an an optimistic estimate, and 48 million tons in a pessimistic one. The wheat production is expected to reach 20.8 million tons (33 in 2021), and transitional wheat stocks are estimated at 10 million tons. The barley production is projected at 6.6 million tons (10.1), and barley export will be 2 million tons. The corn production will be 27.3 million tons (37.6), and corn export will be 10 million tons. The sunseed production will reach 9 million tons (16.9), and sunseed export will reach 6 million tons. Sunflower processing is estimated to reach 7 million tons (10). Rapeseed production will be 1.65 million tons (2.9) and rapeseed export will reach 1.45 million tons. The soybean production is expected at 2.2 million tons (3.5), and soybean exports will reach 1.8 million tons.

- During the first 6 days of the new season, 163,000 tons of grain were exported from Ukraine, including wheat exports of 24,000 tons, barley exports of 10,000 tons and corn exports of 128,000 tons.

- According to a forecast of the German farmers' organization DBV, the grain production in Germany will reach 41.2 million tons in 2022/23, which is 3% less than in 2021/22. The wheat production is expected at 20.7 million tons (-4%), barley production is estimated at 10.3 million tons (-1%) and corn production is projected at 4.5 million tons (no change). Rapeseed production will reach 3.7 million tons (+6%). Given the high prices of canola in 2023/24, an increase in areas is expected.

- As of 07/03/2022, 54% of winter wheat areas in the United States have been harvested, according to USDA data. A year earlier, the harvested areas were 43% (48% on average for the last five years). 66% of the spring wheat crops are in good and excellent condition (+7% compared to the previous week and 52% a year earlier).

- According to a forecast by Statistics Canada, wheat areas in Canada will reach 25.4 million acres in 2022, which is the highest level since 2013 (+9% compared to 2021). Canola areas will be 21.4 million acres (-5%).

- In 2022, a rich summer production of oil crops is expected in China. In 2022/23, the rapeseed production is projected at 14.95 million tons, and rapeseed imports will be 2.8 million tons.

- According to Conab data, as of 07/02/2022, 28% of corn areas have been harvested in Brazil (+8% for the week and 15% a year earlier). The harvesting campaign of the first corn crop has been completed on 95% of the areas (+2%). The sowing campaign of the wheat was carried out on 71% of the planned areas (+7% and 87%).

- In June, palm oil stocks in Malaysia rose to a seven-month high of 1.71 million tons (+12.3% from the previous month). Palm oil production reached 1.58 million tons, the highest level since December 2021. Palm oil exports reached 1.22 million tons (-9.9%).

- Egypt's state-owned company GASC has announced a tender for the purchase of sunseed and soybean oils from the domestic market with delivery in August.

- Jordan has purchased 120,000 tons of wheat at a price of 427.5 USD/ton C&F and delivery within October-November.