Grain Highlights 18.11.2022

As of 11/16/2022, 45% of wheat crops in Argentina were in good and excellent condition (43% a week earlier and 92% a year earlier). Precipitation is the basis of the increase.

- According to a Rusagrotrans forecast, wheat exports from Russia will reach a new record of 43.5 million tonsin 2022/23 (42 in 2017/18 – current record). Total grain exports are projected at 57 million tons (56 in 2017/18). In November, wheat exports will reach 5.2 million tons (5.1 in the previous estimate).

- SovEcon has lowered its forecast for the sunseed production in Russia in 2022 to 16.1 million tons (-5% compared to the initial estimate). As of 10.11.2022, 11.6 million tons of sunseed were harvested (15.1 a year earlier). In 2017, there was a similar delay in the campaign, when 15% of the areas remained unharvested, and the quality of the production was very low.

- In the week starting on 23.11.2022, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,735.2 rubles/ton (2,922.1 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 2,430 rubles/ton (2,686.7) and the export tax on corn will be 193.8 rubles/new (447.5).

- Over the period of 01.07 - 18.11.2022, 15.95 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (23.2 a year earlier), including 8.44 million tons of corn, 6.14 million tons of wheat and 1.31 million tons of barley. According to the forecast of APC - Inform, the export of grain from Ukraine will be 40.3 million tons for the entire season (-23% compared to 2022/23), including 13.8 million tons of wheat (-27%), 2.4 million tons of barley (-58%) and 24 million tons of corn (-11%). In a pessimistic scenario, the total export will be 24.3 million tons, including wheat exports of 8.1 million tons, barley exports of 2 million tons and corn exports of 14.1 million tons.

- As of 11/18/2022, 62.32 million tons were harvested in Ukraine from 16.79 million hectares. The harvesting campaign of wheat is completed on 95% of areas (0% change for the last week). Sunseed has been harvested on 96% of the areas (+3%). Soybeans have been harvested on 97% of the areas (+6%) and corn has been harvested on 50% of the areas (+11%). Harvested wheat is 19.2 million tons and harvested barley reached 5.5 million tons. 3.1 million tons of rapeseed, 12.3 million tons of corn and 9.8 million tons of sunseed have been harvested. In 2021, the wheat production was 32.4 million tons, corn production 40 million tons, barley production was 10 million tons, rapeseed production reached 2.9 million tons and soybean production totaled 3.4 million tons.

- In Kazakhstan, the 2022 production of oil crops reaches 2.8 million tons (+42% compared to 2021). The grain production is 22.1 million tons, including wheat production of 16.4 million tons.

- According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 14.11.2022, 98% of winter wheat and winter barley crops were in good and excellent condition in France, which is also the average level for the last five years.

- According to data from the European Commission, as of 13.11.2022, 13.35 million tons of wheat were exported from the EU (+9.5% compared to the previous year), including 5.46 million tons from France, 1.7 million tons from Romania, 1.56 million tons from Germany, 1.14 million tons from Latvia and 1.07 million tons from Poland. Corn imports reached 10.85 million tons (4.77).

- In September, wheat supplies in Great Britain were 128,300 tons (78,200 in August), including 60,900 tons from Canada. Over the period of July - September, the import was 342,700 tons (631,900), including a total of 131,500 tons from Canada.

- Chicago commodity funds were net sellers of 6,000 soybeans and 5,500 wheat contracts and neutral on corn on Thursday.

- According to Conab data, as of 12/11/2022, the wheat in Brazil has been harvested on 59% of the areas (+16% for the week and 83% a year earlier). 54% of the planned areas (+11% and 63%) were sown with first corn crop, and 66% of the planned areas have been sown (+8% and 78%) with soybeans.

- As of 11/16/2022, 45% of wheat crops in Argentina were in good and excellent condition (43% a week earlier and 92% a year earlier). Precipitation is the basis of the increase. 24% of the planned areas are sown with corn (+1% for the week and 29% a year earlier and 36% on average for the last five years), and 72% of the crops are in good and excellent condition (66% a week earlier and 100 % year earlier).

- Pakistan has announced a tender for the purchase of 500,000 tons of wheat. On 31.10.2022, the country has purchased 385,000 tons of spring wheat at a price of 373 USD/ton C&F and delivery within November-December.

- In their November report, IGC analysts forecast a 2022/23 world wheat production of 790.6 million tons (792 in October and 780.7 in 2021/22). Wheat production will reach 13 million tons in Argentina (17.5 and 22.1), 34.7 million tons in Australia (33.5 and 36.3) and 133.8 million tons in the EU (133.3 and 137.2). World wheat exports are projected to reach 192.5 million tons (192.3 and 196.7), including 25.7 million tons from Australia (25.2 and 27.6), 41.1 million tons from Russia (36.6 and 33.1), 5.6 million tons from India (5.1 and 8), 8 million tons from Argentina (12 and 16.5) and 34.4 million tons from the EU (36.4 and 32.3). World ending wheat stocks will be 281.7 million tons (285.8 and 275.1), including 0.8 million tons in Argentina (1.3 and 1.3), 24.5 million tons in Russia (11.3), 6 million tons in Ukraine (7.6 and 5.9), 15.4 million tons in the United States (15.5 and 18.2), 4 million tons in Australia (3.7 and 3.3), 5.1 million tons in Canada (4.7 and 3.7) and 13.7 million tons in EU (11.7 and 15.6).