Grain Highlights 27.03.2023

According to a forecast of the Russian Grain Union, grain exports from Russia will reach 62 million tons in 2022/23, and 46 million tons have been exported so far.

- As of July 1, 2023, grain stocks in Russia are expected to reach the record 33 million tons. As a pessimistic forecast for the grain production in 2023/24, it is indicated that it will reach 120 million tons, including wheat production of 80 - 85 million tons.

- Over the week of March 20-26, wheat exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk reached 525,600 tons, which is 33,200 tons more than the previous week. The largest recipients of wheat during the period were Sudan with 145,200 tons, Turkey with 123,700 tons and Tanzania with 48,100 tons.

- According to a government forecast from Ukraine, the grain production in the country will be 45 million tons in 2023, including wheat production of 16.6 million tons. Grain consumption during the season will be 5 million tons.

- Winter wheat crops in Kazakhstan are primarily in good and excellent condition. In March, rainfall is excellent and temperatures above normal.

- According to Coceral's forecast, the grain production in the EU and Great Britain will reach 303.5 million tons in 2023/24 (304.4 in December and 290.7 in 2022/23). The corn production is projected at 62.3 million tons (52.5). The wheat production (excluding durum) will be 144.5 million tons (142.3). Barley production is expected at 59.6 million tons (58.8) and rapeseed production is estimated at 21.1 million tons (no change).

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of 03/22/2023, 5% of the corn areas in Argentina have been harvested (10% a year earlier and 13% on average for the last five years). 60% of crops are in bad and very bad condition (58% a week earlier), 36% in satisfactory (33%) and 6% are in excellent and good (7%). The production forecast remains unchanged at 36 million tons (52 in 2021/22).

- In January, palm oil exports from Indonesia were 3 million tons according to GAPKI data, which is 7% more than December and +35% compared to January 2022. Oil stocks in the country were 3.1 million tons (-13 % and -34%), and production reached 4.3 million tons (-11% and +1%).

- Morocco expects to import 1.5 million tons of wheat from the EU in the coming months. The increase in deliveries is due to the difficult logistics from the Black Sea region. In a longer-term period until the end of the year, supplies from France are expected to reach 5 million tons.