Grain Highlights 31.03.2023

Rusagrotrans forecasts a 2023/24 wheat production in Russia of 82.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than the previous estimate.

- In March, a record 4.8 million tons of wheat were exported from Russia (4.79 in October 2022). The total grain export was 6.05 million tons (6.13 in September 2022). Corn exports were also record high - 900,000 tons (978,000 in March 2021). Since the beginning of the season, 3.5 million tons of corn have been exported (+1 compared to the previous year). In April, the export of 4.49 million tons of wheat is expected, and the decrease is related to an expected ban from Kazakhstan on the transportation of Russian wheat in the next 6 months.

- Rusagrotrans forecasts a 2023/24 wheat production in Russia of 82.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than the previous estimate. The total grain production is projected to reach 128 million tons.

- Export prices of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery within March-April rose for the first time since November 2022 to 275 USD/ton (+2.5 USD/ton for the last week). New crop prices with July-August delivery have also risen to these levels. American wheat prices also increased to 296 USD/ton (+3) and the price of French wheat has gone up to 296 USD/ton (+21).

- During the week of April 5-11, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 5,179.4 rubles/ton (5,409.6), 799.4 rubles/ton on barley (3,245.3) and 2,943.6 rubles/ton on corn (2,885).

- The American company Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) is considering options to withdraw from its Russian business. After Cargill, Viterra is the next major global company to leave Russia.

- Over the period of  01.07.2022 - 31.03.2023, 37,639 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (44,943 a year earlier), including 5,341 million tons in March (1,428). The export of wheat was 12.88 million tons (18,399), barley exports were 2,276 million tons (161,900) and corn exports reached 22,163 million tons (20,439).

- The Ministry of Agriculture of Moldova expects a wheat production in the country in 2023 of 1.5 million tons. In 2022, the production was 828,000 tons.

- As of 20.03.2023 in France, 94% of the crops with winter wheat were in good and excellent condition (95% a week earlier and 92% a year earlier), as well as 93% of the winter barley crops (92% and 89%).

- As of 03/27/2023, 28% of the winter wheat crops in Colorado were in good and excellent condition (36% a week earlier), as well as 18% in Texas (23%), 24% in Oklahoma (29%) and 19% in Kansas.

- Refinitiv Commodities Research lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 corn production in Brazil by 0.3 million tons to 124.5 million tons due to delayed planting of second-corn crop. The soybean production was also down by 0.3 million tons to 152.4 million tons.

- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has left unchanged its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Argentina of 25 million tons and the estimate for corn production remained unchanged at 36 million tons. In September, forecasts were for a soybean production of 48 million tons and corn production 50 million tons.

- The harvesting campaign of soybeans is ending in Paraguay, with yields within the expected range of 44.7-56 bushels/acre. Due to drought, early crops have had low yields of 10-30 bushels/acre. However, rainfall since January has improved the condition of other crops.

- Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of Russian wheat at a price of 308.50 USD/ton C&F and delivery in early September. The FOB price from Novorossiysk port will be 274 USD/ton. No barley was purchased.

- Turkey has purchased 395,000 tons of wheat, including 60,000 tons with delivery within 18.05 – 16.06.2023 at a price of 292.80 USD/ton and 335,000 tons with delivery within 12.06 – 10.07.2023 and at a price of 281.90 – 293.99 USD/ton. Initially, the tender was for 695,000 tons of wheat.

- Due to the drought, the grain production in Tunisia will be extremely low - only 200,000 - 250,000 tons compared to 750,000 tons a year earlier. Annually, Tunisia imports 1.8 million tons of wheat and 0.6 million tons of barley.