Grain Highlights 28.07.2023

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2023 by 2.5 million tons to 126.4 million tons. The corn production is expected to reach 63 million tons (63.7 million tons previously forecasted), and barley production is estimated at 48.7 million tons (previously 49.7 million tons).

During the week of August 2-8, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,712.1 rubles/ton (compared to 2,681.8 rubles/ton the previous week), barley will have no duty, and the export tax on corn will be at 1,598.6 rubles/ton (compared to 1,596.7 rubles/ton).

In July, Ukraine exported 2.046 million tons of grain (compared to 1.405 million tons the previous year), including 720,000 tons of wheat (325,000 tons the previous year), 0.5 million tons of barley (none the previous year), and 1.067 million tons of corn (941,000 tons the previous year).

According to FranceAgriMer data as of July 24, 2023, 83% of the soft wheat areas in France have been harvested (+24% from the previous week and 94% more than the previous year). For corn, 81% of the crops are in good and excellent condition (compared to 82% the previous week and 75% the previous year).

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2023 by 2.5 million tons to 126.4 million tons. The corn production is expected to reach 63 million tons (63.7 million tons previously forecasted), and barley production is estimated at 48.7 million tons (previously 49.7 million tons). The ending wheat stocks for the new season will be 17.4 million tons (previously 20.5 million tons), and wheat exports will remain unchanged at 32 million tons. The rapeseed production is projected to be 19.4 million tons (previously 19.9 million tons), sunseed production is expected at 10.6 million tons (previously 10.8 million tons), and rapeseed imports are estimated at 5.8 million tons.

Yesterday, Chicago commodity funds were net sellers of 13,500 soy contracts, 10,000 corn contracts, and 7,000 wheat contracts.

According to the FAS USDA forecast, Canada's wheat production will reach 35.8 million tons in 2023/24 (compared to 33.824 million tons in 2022/23), the highest in the last 10 years. Wheat exports are projected to be 26.5 million tons (+0.3). From August 2022 to May 2023, Canada's wheat exports reached 15.136 million tons.

Between July 14 and 19, 126,000 tons of corn and 55,000 tons of soy were released from Egyptian ports for domestic consumption. Between October 16, 2022, and July 19, 2023, the released quantities were 4.7 million tons of corn and 1.8 million tons of soy.

On July 26, 2023, Algeria purchased 120,000 tons of feed corn from either Brazil or Argentina at a price of 248.5 USD/ton C&F.