During the week of November 15-21, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,544.9 rubles/ton (compared to 4,529.7 the previous week), barley will be duty-free and unchanged, and the export tax on corn will be 1,102.6 rubles/ton (1,291.2).
According to FAS USDA, the forecast for vegetable oil production in Russia for 2023/24 is 9.17 million tons (compared to 9.03 in October), with exports reaching 6.28 million tons (compared to 6.17). Sunsee production is estimated at 17.5 million tons, sunseed oil production is expected at 6.77 million tons, and exports are projected at 4.27 million tons.
As of November 9, 2023, in Ukraine, 9.84 million hectares of grain crops have been harvested (90% of the total area), yielding 51.275 million tons of grain at an average yield of 5.21 tons/hectare. Corn production reached 21.22 million tons from 72% of the area, and sunseed production reaches 11.52 million tons from 97% of the areas.
According to FranceAgriMer data as of November 6, 2023, in France, winter wheat has been sown on 67% of the planned areas (+6% for the week and 91% compared to the previous year), winter barley has been sown on 81% of the planned areas (+5% and 96%), durum was on 31% of the planned areas (-15% compared to the previous year). Corn has been harvested on 95% of the areas.
Conab forecasts that in 2023/24, corn production in Brazil will be 119.1 million tons (-0.3 compared to the previous estimate and -13 compared to 2022/23). The first production will reach 25.9 million tons and the second corn production is expected at 91.2 million tons. Corn consumption in Brazil will be 84.5 million tons (+4.9), corn exports are estimated at 38 million tons (-14), and ending corn stocks 8.9 million tons (-1.3). Wheat production will be 9.6 million tons (-0.8 and -1), ending stocks 0.5 million tons (-0.4 and -0.2), imports will be 5.4 million tons (-0.4 and +0.9). Soybean production will reach 162.42 million tons (+0.4). Planting is completed on 48.4% of the planned areas (compared to 57.5% the previous year).
IVPA predicts vegetable oil imports to India in 2023/24 at 16.2 million tons (compared to the record 16.9 in 2022/23). Palm oil imports will be 9.1 million tons (10.1), sunseed oil imports will be 3.5 million tons (3), soyoil imports will reach 3.6 million tons (3.9). Vegetable oil consumption in the country will reach 25.2 million tons (+2.8%).
In the coming months, India will increase the export of soymeal due to its high prices (the highest in the last 2 months). This growth is driven by concerns about the soybean production in Brazil. Contracts for the export of 300,000 tons of meal to Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal, and Vietnam have already been signed. Increased soy processing in India will raise the supply of soyoil, reducing the import of all oils.