Grain Highlights 29.11.2023

The first forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2024 by SovEcon indicates 89.8 million tons (compared to 91.5 in 2023).

The first forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2024 by SovEcon indicates 89.8 million tons (compared to 91.5 in 2023). Wheat areas will be 29.5 million hectares (29.8), with a yield of 3.04 tons per hectare (3.07).

Starting from November 29, 2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,820.2 rubles per ton (down from 4,395.4 a week earlier). The export tax on corn will be 642 rubles per ton (compared to 1,013.1), while barley continues with zero duty.

From November 1 to November 27, Ukraine exported 2.4 million tons of corn with deals concluded for 2.5 million tons. Sales agreements for December amount to 2.2 million tons of grain. The C&F prices for China stand at 250 USD/ton, which is a competitive offer. China purchased 100,000 - 120,000 tons of corn in the past week, compared to the previous 100,000 - 150,000 tons.

From July 1 to November 29, 2023, Ukraine exported 12.921 million tons of grain (compared to 17.557 million the previous year), including 3.681 million tons in November (4.354). The exported quantities include 5.847 million tons of wheat (1.216), 871,000 tons of barley (189,000), and 6.07 million tons of corn (2.4).

According to data from UkrOliyaProm, sunseed oil exports from Ukraine reached 764,400 tons (down by 20.5% compared to the previous year) since the beginning of the season. The export for the period of January - October is 4.5 million tons (up by 33%).

Refinitiv Commodities Research has reduced its forecast for the 2024/25 soft wheat production in the EU by 0.7 million tons to 127.3 million tons (compared to 127.7 in 2023/24). The rapeseed production is expected to be 18.6 million tons (down by 0.9).

Anec predicts soybean exports from Brazil in 2023 to be between 101 and 103 million tons (compared to 77.8 in 2022). In November, the export is expected to be between 4.8 and 5.2 million tons, and for the first 11 months of the year, it is forecasted to be within 97.8 and 98.2 million tons.

According to Conab data, 75% of the planned soybean areas in Brazil have been planted (+10% for the week and 86% compared to the previous year). The first corn crop has been planted on 55% of the areas (+6% compared to the previous week and 69% compared to the previous year).

In the last few days, heavy rainfall in southeastern parts of Australia has caused serious damage to wheat crops. A decline in yields and crop quality is anticipated. In some places in New South Wales, rainfall has reached 200 mm/sqm, and in Victoria, it is 80 mm/sqm.

Jordan canceled a tender to purchase 120,000 tons of milling wheat of unspecified origin.

Taiwan is seeking to purchase 109,300 tons of wheat of unspecified origin with delivery within January-February.