Grain Highlights 06.12.2023

According to IKAR's forecast, the wheat production in Russia is expected to reach 92 million tons in 2024, and the total grain production is projected to reach 145 million tons.

According to IKAR's forecast for 2024, wheat production in Russia is expected to reach 92 million tons, with the total grain production at 145 million tons. The grain range under various scenarios is between 137 and 151 million tons, and for wheat, it is between 90 and 95 million tons.

According to SovEcon data in November, wheat exports from Russia reached 3.4 million tons (compared to 4.3 million tons in October). The decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions in the Black Sea during the last 10 days of the month.

In Russia, winter crops have been sown on 18.9 million hectares (compared to 17.7 million hectares the previous year). The condition of the crops is the best in the last 5 years.

According to IKAR for 2023/24, oilseed crops' production in Russia will repeat the current record of 29 million tons, including 16.5 million tons or more of sunseed and 7 million tons of soybeans. In 2022/23, the production was 29.1 million tons (up 17% compared to 2021/22).

According to APK-Inform data in November, soybean processing in Ukraine has reached the highest level since April 2020 - 184,000 tons (up 17% from October and 43% from November 2022). From the beginning of the season (September - November), 160,000 tons of soymeal have been exported (up 45% from the previous year). Poland and Hungary are the main customers.

From December 1 to 4, Ukraine exported 100,000 tons of wheat out of the contracted 1.2 million tons for the month. During December - January, exports are expected to be 1.3 - 1.5 million tons of wheat. Ukrainian wheat with 10.5% protein has good markets because the price for Asia is competitive - 277 USD/ton C&F, compared to Australian wheat at 300 USD/ton.

According to the European Commission data for the period from July 1 to December 3, 2023, slightly over 7 million tons of corn were delivered in the EU (down 43% from the previous season - 12.8 million tons). The largest supplier is Ukraine with 3.79 million tons (5.6), followed by Brazil with 2.7 million tons (6.3). The largest buyers are Spain with 3.3 million tons, the Netherlands with 870,000 tons, and Italy with 768,000 tons.

According to Conab data as of December 3, 2023, 83% of the planned soybean areas in Brazil have been planted (+8% for the week and 91% the previous year). Planting of the first corn crop has been completed on 60% of the areas (+5% and 71%).

South Korean NOFI has announced a tender to purchase 65,000 tons of feed wheat of any origin and 69,000 tons of corn, also of any origin. Deliveries will be made from February to April.

Algeria has purchased 500,000 tons of durum at a price of 435 USD/ton C&F from Mexico and 470 USD/ton C&F from Australia and Canada. The delivery will take place within January-February.