Grain Highlights 18.12.2023

The condition of winter crops in Russia is very good, with only 4% of crops in poor condition (8% average for the last five years)

The condition of winter crops in Russia is very good, with only 4% of crops in poor condition (8% average for the last five years). Soil moisture has been sufficient throughout the vegetation period. Areas with severe frosts have had adequate snow cover. The winter crop areas cover 18.9 million hectares (17.7 in 2022).

According to the forecast by Rusagrotrans, Russia's wheat exports in December are expected to reach 3.8 – 3.9 million tons (revised from 4.5, compared to 4.56 in December 2022).

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture has confirmed its export potential forecast for Russian grain in 2023/24 at 65 million tons, including 47 million tons of wheat.

During the past week, 408,600 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (+33,400 compared to the previous week). The entire quantity was wheat, with major clients being Indonesia with 134,900 tons, Bangladesh with 109,700 tons, UAE with 66,000 tons, Turkey with 41,000 tons, and others.

AgCanada significantly increased its forecast for Canada's wheat exports in 2023/24 by 2 million tons to 20 million tons. The production estimate increased by 2.13 million tons, with ending wheat stocks reaching 3.5 million tons (from 3.2). In the first 19 weeks of the season, Canada exported 7.9 million tons of wheat (compared to 7.04). The largest clients were China with 536,400 tons, Indonesia with 532,900 tons and the United States with 227,300 tons.

Safras&Mercado lowered its forecast for Brazil's corn production in 2023/24 by 6.6 million tons to 129.2 million tons, and 140.8 million tons in 2022/23. The first corn production will reach 26.4 million tons (24.8), and the second production is estimated at 89.1 million tons (99.9). Despite the significant reduction, this is not the lowest forecast among analysts, with expectations of a production below 120 million tons.

According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics in October, Australia exported 384,700 tons of canola (+5% compared to September and 39,900 in October 2022). The largest clients were France with 98,300 tons, Japan with 82,900 tons and Mexico with 81,400 tons. According to ABARES, the production in 2023/24 will be 5.52 million tons (compared to 8.27 in 2022/23).

According to data from SEA in November, India's imports reached 869,500 tons of palm oil (+23% compared to October), 149,900 tons of soyoil (+10.8%), and 128,700 tons of sunseed oil (-16.3%). Oil stocks in India decreased to 2.96 million tons by early December (compared to 3.14 a month earlier).

On December 19, 2023, Algeria will hold a tender to purchase 200,000 tons of corn from Argentina and 70,000 tons of soymeal, with delivery scheduled for January.

Saudi Arabia has purchased 1.353 million tons of wheat for delivery from February to May at prices ranging from 277.50 to 296.00 USD/ton C&F.