Grain Highlights 29.12.2023

Refinitiv Commodities Research is reducing its forecast for the 2023/24 corn production in Brazil by 1% to 118 million tons, which is 14 million tons less than in 2022/23.

During the week of January 11-16, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,165.9 rubles/ton (3,859.7 a week earlier), barley remains unchanged without duty, and the export tax on corn will be 1,431.7 rubles/ton (1,148.6).

In 2023, the soybean production in Russia reached 6.7 million tons (+0.7 compared to 2022). The Ministry of Agriculture plans for production of 7-8 million tons in the coming years. Over the last 10 years, the cultivated areas in Russia have increased from 1.5 million hectares to 3.5 million hectares.

According to data from the Ukrainian Grain Association, in 2023, Ukraine harvested 79.2 million tons of grain and oilseeds, including 58.4 million tons of grain and 20.8 million tons of oilseeds. The harvested corn is 28.1 million tons, harvested wheat reached 22.5 million tons, and harvested barley reached 5.9 million tons.

According to Anec data, in December, 512,340 tons of wheat will be exported from Brazil (290,000 in the previous estimate). Corn exports will be 6.96 million tons (-215,000). The total export for 2023 will be 56.04 million tons (+25.4%). In December, soybean exports will reach 3.48 million tons (3.5), and for 2023, it is projected to be 101.08 million tons (+29.9%). Soymeal exports will be 2.05 million tons (2.085) in December, and for the year, it will be 22.36 million tons (+9.6%).

Refinitiv Commodities Research reduces its forecast for the 2023/24 corn production in Brazil by 1% to 118 million tons, which is 14 million tons less than in 2022/23. The soybean production is projected to be 151.1 million tons (154.6).