Grain Highlights 07.02.2024

According to Abiove's forecast for the 2023/24 season, the soybean production in Brazil is expected to be 156.1 million tons, which is a decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous estimate and 154.6 million tons compared to the 2022/23 season.

According to RUSEED data, in 2023, soybean areas in Russia were 3.6 million hectares (+4.6% compared to 2022). The soybean production in 2023 reached a new record of 6.7 million tons. The forecast for 2024 is for the areas to reach 4 million hectares.

In January, the export of Ukrainian products reached a pre-war level of 3.1 billion USD, including 1.9 billion USD through seaports. The new corridor saw the passage of 660 vessels with 20 million tons of cargo.

In 2023/24, a record 3.2 million tons of soybeans will be exported from Ukraine (+2% compared to 2022/23). During the period from September to January, exports were almost 1.9 million tons (+17%), including 547,000 tons to Egypt.

In 2023, the corn production in Kazakhstan reached 1.19 million tons (+8.3% compared to 2022). The cultivated area was 190,370 hectares, with an average yield of 6.25 tons per hectare (5.83 in 2022).

According to Arvals' estimate, the durum wheat production in France in 2024 will reach a new minimum due to unfavorable natural conditions. In 1997, the production was the lowest in history – 1.28 million tons due to a small sown area. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates the areas for the 2023 production at 205,000 hectares (-10.5% compared to 2022). In 2024, the production will reach a maximum of 1.2 million tons under very good natural conditions. If there are problems with precipitation, the production will be 0.9 – 1 million tons.

According to Secex data, in the first four weeks of January, Brazil exported 812,200 tons of wheat (561,500 tons a year earlier). Wheat imports during the period were 520,600 tons (439,900 tons). The average import price during the period was 249.2 USD/ton FOB.

According to Abiove's forecast, the soybean production in Brazil in 2023/24 will be 156.1 million tons (-4.2% compared to the previous estimate and 154.6 in 2022/23). As of February 3, 2024, 14% of the soybean areas have been harvested (9% in 2022/23). Exports will be 98.1 million tons (-3.8% compared to 2022/23), processing will reach 54.5 million tons (+2.4%), soymeal production is expected at 41.7 million tons (+1%), and soyoil production is projected at 10.9 million tons (+0.4%).

According to SAFRAS&Mercado's forecast, the soybean production in Argentina in 2023/24 will be 49.6 million tons (48.6 in the previous estimate from August 2023). As of February 1, 2024, 36% of the crops are in good and excellent condition (44% a week earlier), 50% in satisfactory condition (48%), and 14% in poor and very poor condition (8%).

In 2023, almost 56 million tons of grain and products from its processing were exported from Argentina. The indicator is the lowest since 2009. Vietnam is the largest customer of Argentina's products, surpassing China.

Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of hard wheat in a tender with an announced purchase of 120,000 tons. The deal's price is 262.95 USD/ton C&F with delivery at the end of April.