Grain Highlights 09.02.2024

According to the assessment by the Canadian Grain Commission from the beginning of the 2023/24 season until February 4, 2024, Canada has exported 12.5 million tons of wheat, which is 4% less than the previous season.

In 2023, Russia is projected to export 7.125 million tons of corn (compared to 3.974 million in 2022), according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Sales to Turkey are expected to reach 2.38 million tons (1.26), sales to Libya are expected at 265,000 tons (131,000), 198,000 tons to China (582,000),139,000 tons to South Korea (200,000), and 36,000 tons to Japan (61,000).

As of January 1, 2024, wheat reserves in Russia's agricultural, processing, and storage facilities set a new record at 36.5 million tons (+1% compared to January 1, 2023). Southern regions held 12.5 million tons, the central region held 9.3 million tons, and the Volga region 7.6 million tons.

From the beginning of the season until February 9, 2024, Ukraine exported 25.2 million tons of grain (28.8 million a year earlier), including 1.3 million tons in February (1.7). Wheat exports were 9.8 million tons (0.624 in February), corn exports were 13.6 million tons (0.608), and barley exports reached 1.5 million tons (0.04).

By the week ending on February 8, 2024, 91% of corn areas in Ukraine had been harvested, yielding a total of 28.71 million tons with an average yield of 7.79 tons per hectare. In the last week, 60,000 tons of corn were harvested.

According to the FAS USDA forecast for 2023/24, Turkey's wheat production is estimated at 19.5 million tons, corn prodution is expected at 8.4 million tons, and barley production is projected at 8 million tons. Wheat imports remain unchanged at 10 million tons. Corn imports are projected to be 2 million tons. From July to December, wheat flour exports were 2.1 million tons (+28% compared to the previous year).

The Canadian Grain Commission estimates that from the beginning of the 2023/24 season until February 4, 2024, Canada exported 12.5 million tons of wheat, 4% less than the previous season. This includes 1.6 million tons of durum. As of December 31, 2023, wheat stocks in Canada were 20.7 million tons (-10% compared to the previous year), including 3 million tons of durum (-27%). Barley exports were 1 million tons (-45%), with reserves of 5.5 million tons (+6%). Canola exports were 3 million tons (-33%), with reserves of 12.9 million tons (+1%).

In February, Brazil is expected to export 773,900 tons of corn (3.4 in January and 1.9 in February 2023). Soybean exports are projected to be 7.3 million tons (2.3 in January and 7.6).

Conab has lowered its forecast for the 2023/24 soybean production in Brazil to 149.4 million tons (155.2 in January and 162 in 2022/23). The corn production is expected to be 113.7 million tons (117.6 in January).

According to CNGOIC, soybean reserves in China decreased by 19% in January, reaching 5.3 million tons by February 2, 2024 (-0.4% compared to the beginning of February 2022). In the week of January 27 to February 2, 2024, China processed 1.9 million tons of soybeans (-4% compared to the previous week and +50% compared to the previous year).

The increase in palm oil prices will be limited due to the high supply of soybean and sunseed oils at lower prices. Global vegetable oil production is increasing, while palm oil production is decreasing. Unrefined palm oil for March delivery is offered at C&F India for 930 USD/ton, while soybean and sunseed oils are offered at 915 USD/ton and 910 USD/ton, respectively. In January alone, palm oil shipments to India decreased to 787,000 tons, while purchases of soyoil increased to 190,000 tons (-24%). Due to high transportation costs, the premium of palm oil over sunseed, soybean, and rapeseed oils for Europe is increasing to 100 USD/ton. In March, soyoil imports to India may increase to 300,000 tons and to 400,000 tons in April, while palm oil deliveries will decrease to 700,000 tons. Palm oil will maintain its premium due to reduced production and increased demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and Malaysia.