Grain Highlights 16.02.2024

According to Rusagrotrans, the grain production in Russia for 2024 is forecasted to be 140 million tons (optimistic estimate: 144 million tons), including wheat production of 92 million tons (96.3 million tons).

- According to Rusagrotrans, the grain production in Russia for 2024 is forecasted to be 140 million tons (optimistic estimate: 144 million tons), including wheat production of 92 million tons (96.3 million tons). IKAR predicts a grain production of 145 million tons, with wheat accounting for 92 million tons.

- During the period from February 21 to 27, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,952.9 rubles/ton (previously 4,058.9). The export tax on barley will be 190 rubles/ton (previously 219.5), and the export tax on corn will be1,083.5 rubles/ton (previously 2,278.7).

- From July 1, 2023, to February 16, 2024, Ukraine exported 26.739 million tons of grain (30.014 million tons a year earlier), including 2.863 million tons in February (previously 3.043). The exports comprised 10.333 million tons of wheat (1.116 million tons a year earlier), 1.543 million tons of barley (126,000 tons), and 14.597 million tons of corn (1.613 million tons).

- Preliminary data for January shows that sunseed processing in Ukraine was 1.4 million tons (a 10% decrease compared to December but a 36% increase compared to January 2023). Sunseed processing has exceeded the previous year's figure for the third consecutive month. From September to January, 6.5 million tons of sunseed were processed in Ukraine (a 9% increase).

- According to the European Commission, from July 1, 2023, to February 2, 2024, the EU exported 18.6 million tons of soft wheat (an 8% decrease compared to 2022/23). The largest exporters were France (4.6 million tons), Romania (4.5 million tons), Poland (2.5 million tons), Lithuania (1.8 million tons), Latvia (1.4 million tons), Germany (1.7 million tons), and Bulgaria (1.7 million tons). The main importers were Morocco (2.7 million tons), Nigeria (1.8 million tons), Algeria (1.6 million tons), Egypt (1.3 million tons), and China (0.9 million tons). Wheat imports during the period were 5.7 million tons (a 3% increase), including 3.9 million tons from Ukraine.

- According to FranceAgriMer data as of February 12, 2024, 68% of France's soft wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (93% a year earlier). The planting plan for soft wheat has been fully executed, and for durum wheat, it stands at 89%, with planting ongoing. For durum wheat, 75% of crops are in good or excellent condition. 71% of the winter barley crops are in good or excellent condition for (compared to 72% and 92% in the previous year). The planting of spring barley has been completed on 20% of the planned areas (compared to 18% and 54%).

- In December, the UK increased wheat imports to 254,000 tons (compared to 172,800 in November), reaching the highest level for the current economic year. Since the beginning of 2023/24, imports have totaled 1.04 million tons (compared to 0.715 million tons). Canada is the largest supplier with 100,300 tons, and since the start of the season, it has supplied 324,400 tons. In December, exports were 19,600 tons, and since the beginning of the season, they amounted to 156,100 tons (593,100 tons).

- Turkey has increased its wheat imports from Russia to a record 9 million tons amid reduced deliveries from Argentina and Brazil. In 2022, the country delivered 8.9 million tons of wheat from 30 countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, and Libya. In 2023, wheat deliveries increased to 12 million tons, including 9 million tons from Russia, and exports rose to 1.9 million tons.

- Algeria has conducted a tender to purchase 160,000 tons of corn from Argentina or Brazil. The purchased quantity is priced at 230 USD/ton C&F with delivery in March 2024. There was no tender for the purchase of 35,000 tons of soymeal.

- According to the February report from the International Grains Council (IGC), the global corn production for 2023/24 is projected to reach 1,233 million tons (previously 1,230 and 1,163 in 2022/23). The US corn production is expected to be 389.7 million tons (+2.7 and +43), with US corn exports at 52.4 million tons (51.8 and 42.2). Worldwide corn exports are anticipated to be 177.3 million tons (+3 and 179.7). Corn reserves in the United States are expected to be 56.1 million tons (+0.4 and +22). Corn reserves in China have decreased by 1 million tons to 172.9 million tons (-3.1). Global corn reserves are expected to be 286.3 million tons (286.8 and 274.6).