Grain Highlights 08.03.2024

According to the forecast by Rusagrotrans, wheat exports from Russia in March are expected to be 4.4 - 4.5 million tons (compared to 4.24 million tons in February).

- The Russian government extends the ban on rapeseed exports imposed on 01.09.2023 until 31.08.2024. The goal is to ensure raw materials for oil processing plants in the country.

- During the week of March 13-19, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,334.5 rubles/ton (3,575.4 a week earlier), the export tax on barley will be 587.8 rubles/ton (667.6) and the export tax on corn will be 527 rubles/ton (885.2).

- During the period 01.07.2023 – 28.02.2024, 12.14 million tons of oilseed meals were delivered to the EU (-9% compared to the previous season). Soymeal imports were 9.63 million tons (-13%), rapeseed meal imports were 625,935 tons (+22%), sunseed meal imports reached 1.883 million tons (+6%). Brazil is the largest supplier of soymeal with 6.17 million tons, followed by Argentina with 1.73 million tons and the USA with 519,630 tons. For rapeseed meal, Russia exported 256,160 tons, Belarus 184,695 tons, Ukraine 139,600 tons. As for sunseed meal, Ukraine exported 722,000 tons, Russia 455,166 tons, and Argentina 433,500 tons.

- According to FranceAgriMer data as of 04.03.2024, 68% of winter wheat crops in France are in good and excellent condition (95% the previous year), the lowest level since 2020. 73% of the durum wheat crops are in good condition (-1% compared to the previous week and 91%), and 92% of the planned areas are sown with durum wheat (+1% and 98%).

- According to StoneX estimates, the wheat production in Brazil for 2024/25 will be 9.2 million tons (+14% compared to 2023/24 – 8.1 million tons) with an average yield of 3.02 tons/hectare (2.34).

- Abiove has reduced its forecast for the soybean production in Brazil for 2023/24 by 2.3 million tons to 153.8 million tons (-0.8 for the year). Exports will be 97.8 million tons (-0.3 and -4.1), processing in Brazil will be 54.5 million tons (52.2 in 2022/23), soymeal production is projected at 41.7 million tons (40.7), and soyoil production at 11 million tons (10.5).

- According to Anec's forecast for March, Brazil is expected to export 12.8 million tons of soybeans (9.5 in February and 14.4 in March 2023). If conditions are favorable, exports could reach 13.3 million tons. Soymeal exports will be 2.1 million tons (1.4 and 1.8), corn exports are projected at 146,800 tons (713,600 and 780,100), and wheat exports are estimated at 613,900 tons (538,400 and 485,400) for the week of March 3-9.

- GAPKI predicts palm oil production in Indonesia in 2024 to be 54.4 million tons (down from the previous estimate of 57.6 million), which is 1.2 million tons more than in 2023. Exports will be 29.5 million tons (32.2), domestic consumption will increase to 24.1 million tons (+2.1), and reserves will be 5.3 million tons (+0.8).

- In January and February, soybean imports to China reached 13.04 million tons, which is 8.8% less than the previous year and the lowest figure in the last five years. Data for soybean imports for January-February 2023 has been revised from 16.17 million tons to 14.30 million tons.

- Algeria has purchased approximately 120,000 tons of corn of unspecified origin at a price of 228-230 USD/ton C&F. They have also bought 30,000 tons of feed barley.

- Jordan has acquired 60,000 tons of milling wheat from Russia at a price of 236 USD/ton C&F with delivery in July. A tender has been announced for the purchase of 120,000 tons of feed barley.