Grain Highlights 14.04.2024

Conab has lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil by 336,000 tons to 146.5 million tons (-5.2% compared to the previous season).

- The USDA has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Russia for 2023/24 by 1 million tons to 52 million tons (47.5 in 2022/23). Reserves in the country will decrease compared to the previous season to 12.4 million tons (14.6 at the end of 2022/23), which is 17% higher than the five-year average. Corn exports have also been increased to 5.6 million tons (from 5.9).

- During the week of April 17-23, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,276.6 rubles/ton (3,236.1 the previous week) and the export tax on barley will be 451.6 rubles/ton (667.9) and zero tax will be applied on corn exports (86).

- As of April 11, 2024, in Ukraine, corn has been planted on 120,000 hectares or 3% of the total planned 3.912 million hectares. Spring wheat has been planted on 173,900 hectares (70.6%), spring barley on 683,400 hectares (83.5%), sunseed on 470,100 hectares (9%), and soybeans have been planted on 20,600 hectares (1%).

- According to FranceAgriMer data as of April 8, 2024, in France, 64% of winter wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (65% the previous week and 94% the previous year), the lowest level in the last 4 years. 60% of spring barley crop are in good or excellent condition (-1%), the lowest level in the last 10 years. 91% of the planned areas have been planted (+5% and 100%). Corn planting has been completed at 3% of the planned areas (9% the previous year).

- According to EIA data for the first week of April, 1.06 million barrels of ethanol were produced daily in the United States (-17,000 compared to the previous week and +97,000 compared to last year). Ethanol stocks decreased by 208,000 barrels for the week to 1.08 million barrels.

- Conab has lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil by 336,000 tons to 146.5 million tons (-5.2% compared to the previous season). Corn production will be 110.9 million tons (-16%), including a second corn production of 85.6 million tons (-16%). Corn imports are expected to reach 2.5 million tons.

- According to USDA's April report for 2023/24, global vegetable oil production will be 223.17 million tons (222.85 in March and 217.88 in 2022/23). Rapeseed oil production will reach 34.01 million tons (33.79), cottonseed oil is forecasted at 4.96 million tons (4.95), sunseed oil production is expected at 21.8 million tons (21.66), soyoil production is estimated at 61.63 million tons (61.68). Meal production will be 369.6 million tons (369.37), including rapeseed meal production of 48.68 million tons (48.49), soymeal production of 257.68 million tons (257.76) and sunseed meal production of 22.98 million tons (22.87).

- In its April report, the USDA forecasts world oilseed production for 2023/24 at 658.5 million tons (658.68 in March and 637.47 in 2022/23). Major crops' production will be 539.92 million tons (539.83 and 519.8), including soybean production of 396.73 million tons (396.85 in March), rapeseed production of 88.39 million tons (88.07), sunseed production of 54.8 million tons (54.91). Global oilseed exports are projected at 199.41 million tons (199.64 and 202.02), including soybean exports of 173.06 million tons (173.61 and 172.09). Processing of oilseeds worldwide is expected at 541.84 million tons (541.25 and 524.88).