- IKAR has lowered its forecast for Russia's 2024/25 grain production for the fourth time this month, this time from 132 million tons to 129.5 million tons, including 81.5 million tons of wheat (down from 83.5). Grain exports are expected to reach 55.5 million tons (down from 57), including 44 million tons of wheat (down from 45). In 2023, the grain production was 144.9 million tons, including 92.8 million tons of wheat.

- Last week, 391,100 tons of wheat were exported from Russia's Novorossiysk port (503,000 tons the previous week). The largest customers were Indonesia (131,800 tons), Kenya (62,300 tons), UAE (55,300 tons), Egypt (53,800 tons), and Mexico (49,500 tons).

- The Russian Ministry of Agriculture plans to declare a state of emergency across the country due to crop damage since May 4, 2024.

- In June, the export duty on sunseed oil from Russia remains zero. The export on sunseed meal will be 1,544.3 rubles/ton (down from 2,389.6).

- The Ukrainian Grain Association has lowered its forecast for grain and oilseed production in Ukraine for 2024/25 by 1.5 million tons to 74.6 million tons (82.8 in 2023/24). Wheat production is expected to reach 19.1 million tons (down by 0.9), with exports of 13 million tons, barley production at 4.6 million tons (up by 2). Since the start of the current season, wheat exports have been 17.04 million tons, and barley exports reach 2.4 million tons. In the new season, total grain exports are expected to reach 43.5 million tons (down from 53.2). Corn production is projected at 25.5 million tons (down by 0.8 from the previous estimate), with exports of 20.5 million tons (25.8 since the start of the current season). The new season's sunseed production will be 13.7 million tons, with processing at 13.6 million tons. Rapeseed production will be 4.3 million tons and rapeseed exports are expected at 3.4 million tons. Soybean production is expected at 5.5 million tons and soybean exports are projected at 4 million tons.

- Since the start of the season, Canada has exported 35.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds (down 9% from the previous season). This includes 17.6 million tons of soft wheat (up 9%), 3 million tons of durum wheat (down 33%), 1.8 million tons of barley (down 33%), and 5.2 million tons of canola (down 25%). According to the USDA, total wheat exports this season will reach 24 million tons (up 6%), and 24.5 million tons for 2024/25.

- Since the start of the season until May 27, 2024, Ukraine has exported 45.76 million tons of grain (44.919 the previous year), including 4.354 million tons in May (3.033). Exports include 17.036 million tons of wheat (1.25 in May), 2.374 million tons of barley (170,000), and 25.824 million tons of corn (2.923).

- According to a forecast by the Association of Farmers' Cooperatives in Germany, the 2024 wheat production in the country will be 20.31 million tons (down 5.6% from 2023). The winter rapeseed production will reach 3.87 million tons (down 8.4%), winter barley production is expected at 9.27 million tons (down 3.1%), spring barley production is estimated at 1.89 million tons (up 33.5%), and corn production is projected at 4.53 million tons (up 13%).

- South Korea's FLC has purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn from South America or South Africa at a price of 247.49 USD/ton C&F, for delivery between August and October. It is noticeable that South Korean feed mills quickly switched to buying cheaper corn given the already expensive wheat.