Grain Highlights 28.05.2024

Safras&Mercado has lowered its forecast for the corn production in Brazil for 2023/24 to 123.31 million tons (126.13 million in April and 140.06 million in 2022/23).

- SovEcon has lowered its forecast for the wheat production in Russia for 2024/25 to 82.1 million tons (85.7 million in the previous estimate from a week ago). In the Volga region, the production will be 16.7 million tons (-2.1), in the central region wheat production will be 17.9 million tons (+1.3), and in the south it will reach 26.2 million tons (-0.3). Due to prolonged rains in Siberia, the sowing of spring wheat, which occupies the most area there, cannot be completed.

- MARS forecasts an average yield of soft wheat in the EU for 2024/25 at 5.92 tons/hectare (5.93 in April and 5.87 average for the last five years), average spring barley yield is estimated at 4.34 tons/hectare (4.32 and 4.09), average winter barley yield is expected at 5.98 tons/hectare, average corn yield is forecasted at 7.59 tons/hectare (7.57 and 7.34), average rapeseed yield is predicted at 3.21 tons/hectare (3.26 and 3.18) and average sunseed yield is projected at 2.25 tons/hectare (2.24 and 2.15).

- Safras&Mercado has lowered its forecast for the corn production in Brazil for 2023/24 to 123.31 million tons (126.13 in April and 140.06 in 2022/23). The average yield will be 5.9 tons/hectare (6 and 6.3). The second corn production will reach 83.64 million tons (86.63 and 99.09). The first corn production will be 25.59 million tons (24.82 in 2022/23). Usually, the second corn production is exported, where the reduction from the previous season will be 15.45 million tons, which is not small but is entirely compensated by Argentina, where the growth of the current production is around this figure. We still have to see how much the corn production in the United States will decrease; there will also be a reduction in Ukraine, which is already reflected in the forecasts. Soybeans will save the situation this time with a large supply of not very expensive protein, but nevertheless, we should secure higher prices for everything.

- The South Korean association KFA has announced a tender for the purchase of 138,000 tons of feed corn from South America or South Africa with delivery in September.

- The authorities in Egypt plan to increase the area planted with wheat for the 2024/25 season to 3.5 million acres, corn areas to 2.8 million acres and soybean areas to 0.22 million acres. Grain storage capacity will increase to 5.2 million tons from 3.9 million tons last season.

- MARS forecasts the yields of various crops in North African countries:

Wheat yields:

Algeria 1.66 tons/hectare (1.64 average for the last five years)

Egypt 6.83 (6.61)

Libya 0.78 tons/hectare (0.77)

Morocco 1.23 tons/hectare (1.61)

Tunisia 2.26 tons/hectare (2.07)

Barley yields:
Algeria 1.16 tons/hectare (1.13)
Egypt 3.92 tons/hectare (3.84)
Libya 0.52 tons/hectare (0.51)
Morocco 0.78 tons/hectare (1.04)
Tunisia 1.22 tons/hectare (1.18)