Grain Highlights 04.07.2024

ProZerno forecasts a total grain production in Russia for 2024/25 at 128.2 million tons (compared to 144.9 million tons in 2023/24), including wheat production of 82 million tons (92.8), barley production of 17.5 million tons (21.1), and corn production of 15 million tons (16.6).

- According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, in the Krasnodar region, 161,000 hectares of grain crops have been harvested, yielding 1.15 million tons of grain with an average yield of 7.3 tons per hectare (6.04 the previous year).

- The Central Bank of Russia predicts that the peak of annual inflation will be reached in July. It is highly likely that at the next meeting, the key interest rate will be raised from 16% to 17% or even 18%. The target inflation rate of 4% is expected to be achieved again by mid-2025.

- According to Anec, 3.4 million tons of corn will be exported from Brazil in July (compared to 2.4 million in June and a decrease of 2.5 million compared to July 2023). China is the main destination for exports, accounting for 20%.

- Analysts in Argentina estimate that soybean processing in 2023/24 will be 40-42 million tons, which is a high level. In June, 3.8-3.9 million tons of soybeans were likely processed. Between January and June, Argentina imported 3.37 million tons of soybeans, mainly from Paraguay, which is the second-highest figure after the previous year's 4.42 million tons. Due to high inflation in the country, farmers are holding back sales, which will raise ending stocks to 7 million tons. Argentina's export potential for the season will be 28 million tons (26 million the previous year).

- South Korea's MFG has purchased 60,000 tons of soymeal from South America at a price of 433.5 USD/ton C&F with delivery in October.

- According to FAS USDA data, wheat imports to Algeria will reach 8 million tons in 2024/25 (down 0.6 million from the record 2023/24 level). The new season's production will be at the 2023/24 level of 2.075 million tons. Barley imports will be 600,000 tons (an increase of 100,000 tons).

- Tunisia has announced a tender to purchase 50,000 tons of durum wheat of any origin, with delivery in September. At the previous tender held on April 18, 2024, 25,000 tons of durum wheat were purchased at a price of 376.49 USD/ton C&F.