Grain Highlights 26.08.2024

In 2024, Russia's oilseed crop production is expected to reach 30 million tons (compared to 29.95 million tons in 2023), including 15.9 million tons of sunseed, a record 7.8 million tons of soybeans, over 5 million tons of rapeseed, and other oilseeds.

- In 2024, the corn acreage in Russia was 2.62 million hectares, a decrease of 1.6% compared to 2023. Over the past five years, the acreage has increased by 1.2%, and over the past 10 years, by 1.9%.

- In September, the export tax on Russian sunseed meal will be 2,881 rubles/ton (previously 1,869.7 rubles/ton). The export tax on sunseed oil remains zero.

- As of August 26, 2024, almost 1.5 million hectares of grain crops have been harvested in Kazakhstan, yielding 2.7 million tons of grain with an average yield of 1.79 tons/hectare.

- According to analysts from Turkey, the import of Russian wheat into Turkey in 2024 is expected to exceed 8 million tons. The total wheat import is projected to be over 10 million tons.

- In 2023/24, the EU imported 19.75 million tons of oilseed meals, an increase of 1% compared to 2022/23. The import of sunseed meal increased by 18%, while soymeal imports decreased by 2%, and rapeseed meal by 3%. Imports from Ukraine amounted to 2.92 million tons, including 310,000 tons of rapeseed meal, 3.01 million tons of sunseed meal, and 547,000 tons of soymeal.

- Anec forecasts that Brazil's soymeal exports in August will be 2.38 million tons (up from 2.24 million tons in the previous estimate, 2.011 million tons in July, and 1.925 million tons in August 2023). Soybean exports are expected to be between 7.5 and 8.85 million tons. Approximately 84% of meal exports are destined for China, and 72% of soybean exports.

- In 2023/24, feed corn consumption in Indonesia is expected to reach 8.6 million tons, and in 2024/25, it is projected to increase to 9 million tons according to the USDA Grain and Feed Update. The poor corn production in 2022/23 forced feed mills to reduce corn usage in feed to 38-40%. For 2024/25, the corn share in feed is expected to rise to 48%. According to Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture, as of the end of June 2024, corn stocks in feed mill warehouses were 17.4% higher than the previous year.

- According to Fastmarket Palm Oil Analytics, with the onset of La Niña in 2025, palm oil production in Malaysia will exceed 19 million tons. According to MPOB data, in July, exports increased by 39.92% compared to June, reaching 1.69 million tons. Inventories decreased for the first time in four months by 5.35% to 1.73 million tons, while production rose by 13.97% to 1.84 million tons.

- According to USDA forecasts, a record 224.2 million tons of oils will be produced globally in 2024/25, an increase of 2.7 million tons compared to 2023/24. Consumption is estimated at 221.7 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons, while stocks are expected to be 29.6 million tons, below the level of 2023/24. Palm oil production is projected to be 79.8 million tons, soyoil production at 65.5 million tons, rapeseed oil production at 34.2 million tons, and sunseed oil production at 20.6 million tons, which will be the lowest level since 2021/22.