Grain Highlights 29.08.2024

The Chinese government has urged local traders to limit imports of barley and sorghum due to the large domestic supply. The aim is to stabilize prices in the domestic market.

- During the period from July 1 to August 28, 2024, Ukraine exported 6.746 million tons of grain (compared to 4.157 million tons in the same period last year), including 3.044 million tons in August (compared to 1.884 million tons last year). The exports included 3.387 million tons of wheat (compared to 1.773 million tons last year), 1.092 million tons of barley (compared to 0.46 million tons last year), and 2.241 million tons of corn (compared to 1.916 million tons last year).

- The representative of FAS USDA in Bulgaria predicts a corn production in the country in 2024 of only 2.2 million tons, which is the lowest level in the past 10 years. This will be the third poor production for the country, which will impact land allocation for years to come. The barley production is estimated at 0.93 million tons, and the wheat production is expected at 6.9 million tons.

- According to a forecast by Germany’s Ministry of Agriculture, the 2024/25 wheat production in the country will be 18.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.7% compared to 2023/24. The total grain production will reach 39.41 million tons, down 7.2%. The winter rapeseed production is expected to reach 3.6 million tons, down 14.3%, and the corn production will be 4.89 million tons, down 8.8%.

- According to a forecast by StatCan, the 2024/25 wheat production in Canada will be 34.4 million tons (compared to 32.9 million tons in 2023). Spring wheat production is projected at 25.4 million tons (compared to 25.5 million tons last year). The canola production is estimated at 19.5 million tons (compared to 19.2 million tons last year).

- As of August 25, 2024, 97.9% of the second corn crop areas in Brazil have been harvested, compared to 84% by the same time last year, according to data from Conab.

- According to a forecast by the Rosario Grain Exchange, around 2 million hectares of corn in Argentina will be reallocated to soybeans in 2024. This will reduce the corn areas by 17–21% in the 2024/25 season. In 2023/24, 16.8 million hectares were planted with corn.

- The Chinese government has urged local traders to limit imports of barley and sorghum due to the large domestic supply. The aim is to stabilize prices in the domestic market. These measures are likely to affect the market in early 2025. Currently, many shipments intended for import will be on the domestic market in October–November. Earlier in 2024, authorities urged traders to limit corn imports. Corn stocks in the southern ports of the country are now at their highest level in the past two years. From January to July, sorghum imports reached 5.21 million tons, an increase of 100% compared to the previous season, with 80% sourced from the USA. Barley purchases increased by 67%, with Australia being the largest supplier.