Grain Highlights 06.09.2024

ProZerno has lowered its forecast for the 2024 Russian grain production by 2 million tons to 126 million tons.

- As of September 5, 2024, in Russia, 6.8% of the sunseed areas have been harvested, or 744,600 hectares. The total area is 10.9 million hectares, compared to 9.9 million hectares in 2023. The sunseed production is expected to reach 15.8 million tons, and the total production of oilseeds is expected to be 28 million tons.

- For the week of September 11–17, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 906.4 rubles/ton (1,115.7 a week earlier). The export tax on corn will be 502.7 rubles/ton (724.5), and barley will remain duty-free.

- ProZerno has lowered its forecast for the 2024 Russian grain production by 2 million tons to 126 million tons. The wheat production will be 82.8 million tons (82.55), barley production is projected at 17.15 million tons (17.5) and corn production is expected at 12.4 million tons (14.74). The sunseed production will be 15 million tons (-0.6 and 17.25), soybean production is forecasted at 7.37 million tons (7.7 and 6.82). In 2023, the grain production was 144.9 million tons, including 92.8 million tons of wheat.

- According to Rosselkhoznadzor, from January to August, Russia exported 57.96 million tons of grain (+3.5% compared to the previous year). This includes 37.1 million tons of wheat, 6.1 million tons of barley, and 5.2 million tons of corn.

- Russia has harvested 93 million tons of grain, including 70.5 million tons of wheat.

- As of September 5, 2024, in Ukraine, 63% of the grain areas have been harvested, yielding 29.309 million tons of grain with an average yield of 4.19 tons/hectare. Wheat has been 100% harvested, yielding 21.859 million tons with a yield of 4.54 tons/hectare, barley has been harvested on 100% of the areas, yielding 5.481 million tons with a yield of 3.92 tons/hectare. Corn has been harvested on 2% of the areas, yielding 457,500 tons with a yield of 4.63 tons/hectare. Of the oilseeds, 16% of sunseed areas have been harvested, yielding 1.39 million tons with a yield of 1.78 tons/hectare, rapeseed 100%, yielding 3.415 million tons with a yield of 2.75 tons/hectare, and soybeans 20%, yielding 1 million tons with a yield of 1.86 tons/hectare.

- Between July 1 and September 6, 2024, Ukraine exported 7.515 million tons of grain (4.884 a year earlier), including 536,000 tons in September (297,000). Of this, 4.032 million tons of wheat were exported (439,000 in September), 1.106 million tons of barley (10,000), and 2.356 million tons of corn (83,000).

- According to Ukrainian traders, sunseed oil prices have increased by 10 USD/ton since the beginning of September due to limited supply. As of September 5, 2024, the price was 930 USD/ton CPT port. In August, only 227,000 tons of sunseed oil were exported (-48% compared to July and the lowest level since June 2022). In August, the price of sunseed oil FOB Russia was 901 USD/ton.

- According to AGPB's forecast, in 2024, the soft wheat production in France will be 25.98 million tons (-26% compared to 2023), which is the lowest level in 40 years. The average yield will be 6.2 tons/hectare (-17%).

- According to Anec's forecast, Brazil's soybean exports in September will reach 5.6 million tons (5.5 in September 2023). Due to high demand, exports could be 6.5 million tons but will not reach August’s level of 7.99 million tons. Between September 1–7, exports reached 2.14 million tons (1.62 in the last week of August). Corn exports will be 5.98 million tons (6.43 and 9.43).

- Due to drought in Argentina, planting of the 2025 corn crop started earlier than usual. The 2024 harvest, already completed, reached 46.5 million tons, 25.6% more than in 2023, with an average yield of 6.49 tons/hectare.

- In 2024/25, Thailand’s corn production is expected to be 5.4 million tons (+2% compared to 2023/24). The average price for producers from January to July was 251 USD/ton, 19% lower than the previous year. The decline is due to duty-free imports, primarily from Myanmar.

- Thailand has purchased 146,000 tons of feed wheat, most likely from Ukraine, the EU, Serbia, and Australia, at prices ranging from 259.95 to 263.95 USD/ton C&F.

- South Korea purchased 66,000–68,000 tons of feed corn from the United States at 232.99 USD/ton C&F + 1.5 USD/ton for unloading, with delivery in November.

- In August, India imported 791,000 tons of palm oil (-27% compared to July). Soybean oil imports were 456,000 tons (+16%), and sunseed oil imports were 288,000 tons (-21%). The total oil imports amounted to 1.53 million tons (-17%).

- Egypt's state company GASC announced a tender to purchase 30,000 tons of soyoil and 10,000 tons of sunseed oil with delivery within November–December.