Grain Highlights 09.09.2024

IKAR has lowered its forecast for the 2024 wheat production in Russia by 1.6 million tons to 82.2 million tons.

- IKAR has lowered its forecast for the 2024 wheat production in Russia by 1.6 million tons to 82.2 million tons. The barley production will be 16.8 million tons (-0.4), and the corn production is expected at 12 million tons (-1.1). The corn production will be the lowest since 2018. The total grain production will reach 125 million tons (-3.5). In 2023, the grain production was 144.9 million tons, including 92.8 million tons of wheat. In 2024/25, Russia's wheat exports will reach 44 million tons (-0.5), and total grain exports will be 53 million tons (-2). In 2023/24, Russia exported a record 72.2 million tons of grain, including 54.1 million tons of wheat.

- In August, Russia exported a record 5.6 million tons of wheat, according to Rusagrotrans data. During the July-August period, the country exported 9.4 million tons of wheat (9.6 in 2023/24). The largest buyer is Egypt with 1.4 million tons of Russian wheat (1.3), followed by Bangladesh with 0.68 million tons (0.65), Turkey with 0.68 million tons (1), Algeria with 0.49 million tons (0.8), Israel with 0.47 million tons (0.55), and Vietnam with 246,000 tons (198,000). In September, exports are expected to be 5.3 million tons (5.5).

- Last week, 586,800 tons of wheat were exported from Russia's Novorossiysk port, including 151,300 tons to Egypt, 65,400 tons to the UAE, 59,500 tons to Algeria, 54,200 tons to Djibouti, and 53,900 tons to Yemen. A week earlier, 580,400 tons of wheat were exported.

- Between July 1 and September 9, 2024, Ukraine exported 7.616 million tons of grain (5.054 million a year earlier), including 627,000 tons in September (467,000). Ukraine exported 4.103 million tons of wheat (2.293), 1.107 million tons of barley (0.528), and 2.374 million tons of corn (2.22).

- Ukraine harvested 35.1 million tons of new crop grains and oilseeds, including 29.1 million tons of grain and 5.8 million tons of oilseeds. The harvested rapeseed is 1.266 million tons, harvested sunseed reached 1.39 million tons, and harvested soybeans is 7,300 tons.

- According to Safras & Mercado, soybean sales by Brazilian farmers have increased significantly over the past 30 days but remain below the five-year average. As of September 6, 2024, soybean sales for the 2023/24 crop have reached 82.2% of the projected production (77.5% a week earlier, 79.8% in 2023, and 86.4% over the past five years). Farmers are expected to harvest 151.6 million tons of soybeans in 2023/24, of which 124.6 million tons have already been sold. Sales of the new 2024/25 soybean crop will reach 171.54 million tons, with 22.5% or 38.62 million tons already sold (18.2% a week earlier, 17.9% a year earlier, and 26.4% on average over the past five years).

- According to market operators, South Korea's FLC has purchased 66,000 – 68,000 tons of feed corn from the United States at a price of 232.99 USD/ton C&F, plus 1.5 USD/ton for port unloading and delivery in November.

- According to an Oil World forecast, sunflower seed exports in 2024/25 will be the lowest in the past nine years, under 2.36 million tons (2.69 in 2023/24). EU exports will reach 460,000 tons (330,000), Moldova exports are expected at 340,000 tons (470,000), Ukraine exports are projected at 130,000 tons (310,000), and Kazakhstan exports at 190,000 tons (250,000). Weak productions will complicate the work of processors in the EU and Turkey. EU processing will be 8.8 million tons (-0.4).