Grain Highlights 16.09.2024

ProZerno has lowered its forecast for the sunseed production in Russia by 0.6 million tons to 15 million tons.

- According to Rosstat data, by the end of August, grain stocks in Russia reached 33.7 million tons (-16.8% compared to 31.08.2023). Oilseed stocks were at 2 million tons (+12.4%). Wheat stocks amounted to 24.8 million tons (-13.9%), corn stocks were 768,200 tons (+26.1%), and sunflower seeds stocks were 499,000 tons (-20.6%).

- ProZerno has lowered its forecast for the sunseed production in Russia by 0.6 million tons to 15 million tons. All processors are seeking sunflower seeds, but supply is limited, and prices are rising rapidly. There is also a sunflower supply shortage in Ukraine, where prices are increasing as well.

- Last week, wheat exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk rose to 273,700 tons, including 96,000 tons to Iran, 90,500 tons to Egypt, 54,200 tons to Syria, and 33,000 tons to Morocco. A week earlier, exports stood at 586,800 tons.

- According to Rusagrotrans, during the period 01.07 – 12.09.2024, Russia exported 9.4 million tons of wheat (9.6 million in 2023/24), including 1.4 million tons to Egypt, 680,000 tons to Bangladesh, 680,000 tons to Turkey, 490,000 tons to Algeria, and 470,000 tons to Israel.

- Between September 1-16, Ukraine exported 8.676 million tons of grain (compared to 5.902 million a year earlier), including 1.21 million tons in September (1.315 million last year). For the first time this season, exports are lower than the previous year. A total of 4.752 million tons of wheat (compared to 969,000 last year), 1.166 million tons of barley (compared to 50,000), and 2.505 million tons of corn (compared to 169,000) were exported.

- According to Conab's estimate, Brazil's grain production in 2023/24 will be 298.41 million tons (-21.4% compared to 2022/23). The corn production is expected to be 115.72 million tons (-12.3%), and soybean production is projected at 147.38 million tons (-7.23 million tons). Corn exports will reach 36 million tons (-34.1%).

- The Indian government has increased the import tax on unrefined sunseed oil to 20% from 0%, and on refined oil to 32.5% from 12.5%. The effective duty for unrefined oil is now 27.5% (up from 5.5%), and for refined oil, it is 35.75% (up from 13.75%).