Grain Highlights 18.09.2024

FranceAgriMer has lowered its forecast for France's soft wheat production in 2024 to 23.52 million tons (27.25 in July's forecast and 31.73 million tons in 2023/24).

- According to Rusagrotrans, 5.3 million tons of wheat are expected to be exported from Russia in September, including 2.6 million tons in the first half of the month.

- SovEcon forecasts that Russia's wheat production in 2024 will reach 82.9 million tons (+0.4 million compared to the previous estimate).

- In Russia, 75% of the areas for all crops have been harvested, totaling 102 million tons of grain. The harvested sunseed amount is 3.7 million tons, and harvested rapeseed reaches 3 million tons. Winter crop sowing has covered 7.5 million hectares.

- A local analyst predicts that Ukraine's grain exports in 2024/25 will reach 43.2 million tons, 20% of which has been exported by September 20, 2024. By the end of the season, wheat exports will be 11.5 million tons, barley exports are expected at 1.5 million tons, and corn exports at 19.2 million tons.

- According to the European Commission, between July 1 and September 15, 2024, soybean imports into the EU reached 2.62 million tons (compared to 2.61 in 2023/24), rapeseed imports were 1.05 million tons (0.77), sunseed imports reached 85,900 tons (50,300), soyoil imports amounted to 58,400 tons (190,300), sunseed oil imports reached 339,200 tons (539,900), and palm oil imports were 539,600 tons (879,300).

- Between July 1 and September 15, 2024, 5.39 million tons of soft wheat were exported from the EU (-23% compared to 2023/24), barley exports were 1.45 million tons (-30%), and corn imports were 4.28 million tons (+17%).

- In 2024, biodiesel production in Brazil is expected to reach 8.9 billion liters (+18% compared to 2023). The authorities have raised the biodiesel blending mandate from 12% to 14%, with a prospect of 15% in 2025. Global biodiesel production in 2024 will reach 76.3 million tons (+7% compared to 2023).

- The Indian government introduced a 20% import duty on raw vegetable oils, leading to a price decline in international markets. Until now, the base import duty for raw oils was 0%, and for refined oils, it was 12.5%. The increase of 20% took effect on September 14. In 2024/25, palm oil imports to India will reach 9–10 million tons (9 in 2023/24), sunseed oil imports up to a record 3.6 million tons (3), and soyoil imports are expected at around 3 million tons.

- Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of wheat at a price of 265.95 USD/ton C&F with delivery in December. A new tender for 120,000 tons of wheat is announced for September 25, 2024, with delivery from January 1 to February 28, 2025.

- FranceAgriMer has lowered its forecast for France's soft wheat production in 2024 to 23.52 million tons (27.25 in July's forecast and 31.73 million tons in 2023/24). Exports will be 10.11 million tons (14.11 and 16.63), including 6 million tons to EU countries (6.5 and 6.29) and 4 million tons outside the EU (7.5 and 10.23). Carryover stocks will reach 2.74 million tons (-13.5%).

- Tunisia has announced a tender for the purchase of 125,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat from unspecified origin, with delivery between October and November.