Grain Highlights 30.10.2024

Oil World forecasts that in 2024/25, the supply of 17 major oils worldwide will increase by 1.6 million tons compared to the 8.8 million tons in 2023/24.

- In the week starting October 30, 2024, Russia’s export tax on wheat is set at 2,227.9 rubles per ton (up from 2,121.2 rubles a week prior). The export tax on barley will be 802 rubles per ton (up from 389.7), and the export tax on corn will be set at 2,702.1 rubles per ton (up from 2,671.7).

- According to an Argus forecast, sunseed oil exports from the Black Sea region in 2024/25 will decrease by 18% compared to 2023/24. The sunseed productions in Bulgaria and Romania have reached a ten-year low at 1.6 million and 1.4 million tons, respectively. Ukraine’s production is expected to reach 12.5 million tons according to USDA forecasts, though government data from Ukraine reports just over 10 million tons. Russia's sunseed production stands at 16.3 million tons.

- In Ukraine, 1.05 million hectares have been sown with winter rapeseed, which is 94% of the planned area and compares to 1.14 million hectares in 2023/24. This reflects a 1% increase or 5,000 hectares over the past week. Winter wheat has been planted on 4.1 million hectares (92% of the plan, with a 7% increase over the week and a 14.8% increase from the previous week, compared to 3.7 million hectares in 2023). Barley planting is also ahead of last year’s pace, reaching 638,500 hectares (up from 402,600).

- Between July 1 and October 30, 2024, Ukraine exported 14.14 million tons of grain (up from 8.904 million tons a year prior), with 3.693 million tons exported in October alone (up from 2.152 million). This includes 7.678 million tons of wheat (up from 1.58), 1.691 million tons of barley (up from 0.368), and 4.494 million tons of corn (up from 1.73).

- AgRural reports that in Brazil, 52% of the first corn crop areas have been sown (up from 48% a week prior and 53% a year ago). Soybean planting has reached 36% of the planned areas (an increase of 18% over the week and down from 40% last year).

- From October 1 to October 25, Malaysian palm oil exports reached 1.26 million tons, up from 1.15 million tons in September.

- Tunisia has canceled a tender to purchase 75,000 tons of durum wheat. The offers submitted for the tender were priced between 338.68 and 379.38 USD per ton C&F.

- On October 29, 2024, Jordan purchased 60,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin at 269 USD per ton C&F, with delivery scheduled within January-February 2025.

- Oil World forecasts that in 2024/25, the supply of 17 major oils worldwide will increase by 1.6 million tons compared to the 8.8 million tons in 2023/24. In previous years, demand growth was 4.1 million tons in 2003/04, 7.1 million tons in 2013/14, and 5.9 million tons in 2023/24. The market is developing a stable oil deficit, likely to push prices up. Currently, around 20% of global oil consumption is in the energy sector. For 2024/25, production of major oils is projected at 227.1 million tons, with palm oil accounting for 35%, soyoil production for 29%, rapeseed oil production for 15%, and sunseed oil production for 9%.

- Global oilseed consumption for 2024/25 is estimated at around 650–660 million tons, projected to reach 860 million tons by 2035. The current production-consumption gap is 8–10 million tons per year and is expected to grow to 24.7 million tons by 2035, driven by soybean demand. By 2035, oil consumption in India will be 35 million tons. In China, soyoil consumption will increase by 2–3 million tons from the current level due to a slowing population growth rate. Consumption in the EU is expected to be between 25.5 and 27 million tons.