Grain Highlights 06.11.2024

SovEcon has raised its estimate for Russia's grain exports in October to 5.6 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 5 million tons.

- SovEcon has raised its estimate for Russia's grain exports in October to 5.6 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 5 million tons. In September, exports reached 5.1 million tons. Barley exports for the month amounted to 200,000 tons (down from 400,000 tons in September), and corn exports were 200,000 tons (compared to 300,000 tons). Last week, analysts reduced their forecast for Russia's total wheat exports for the 2024/25 season from 47.6 million tons to 45.9 million tons.

- In the first four months of the 2024/25 season, Russia's grain exports to Egypt reached 4.304 million tons (+65% compared to the previous year), while exports to Turkey were 1.563 million tons (-37%). Algeria ranked third with 1.485 million tons (+17%), followed by Bangladesh with 1.203 million tons, Kenya with 973,000 tons, Morocco with 557,000 tons, Nigeria with 651,000 tons, Iran with 590,000 tons, and Saudi Arabia with 534,000 tons.

- Ukraine exported 675,000 tons of soybeans in October, three times the September total and a new monthly record, surpassing the previous record of 561,500 tons set in October 2019. Since the start of the 2024/25 season, Ukraine has exported 918,000 tons of soybeans, a 44% increase year-on-year, with 47% of the total going to the EU.

- StoneX has lowered its forecast for average corn yields in the United States for 2024 from 184 bushels per acre to 183.7 bushels per acre, and for soybeans from 53.5 bushels per acre to 52.6 bushels per acre.

- According to Oil World data, Indonesia's palm oil exports in September totaled 1.68 million tons (down from 2.4 million tons in September 2023), marking a multi-year low. Between July and September, exports were 5.63 million tons, a 32% decline. This drop is attributed to high domestic prices and significant premiums for Indonesian palm oil on international markets compared to other oils. The largest decreases were in exports to China and India. In September, the EU received 194,000 tons of palm oil from Indonesia (down from 213,000 tons a year earlier), African countries received 202,000 tons (down from 348,000), China received 314,000 tons (down from 543,000), and India imported 213,000 tons (down from 306,000). For the period from July to September, the EU received 573,000 tons (down from 661,000), African countries 641,000 tons (down from 995,000), China 928,000 tons (down from 1,621,000), and India 870,000 tons (down from 1,873,000).

- Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of milling wheat with delivery between February 1 and 14, 2025. According to an FAS USDA forecast, wheat imports to Jordan for the 2024/25 season are expected to be 1.2 million tons.