Grain Highlights 13.12.2024

In November, Ukrainian rapeseed exports fell by 31% compared to October, reaching 291,000 tons.

During the week of December 18–24, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,136.5 RUB/ton (down from 4,871.5 the previous week), the export tax on barley will be 2,185.3 RUB/ton (down from 2,229.1), and the export tax on corn will be 4,393.3 RUB/ton (down from 4,513.2). The indicative prices for wheat are 236.5 USD/ton (up from 233.3), for barley it will be 197.8 USD/ton (up from 187.5), and the indicative prices for corn will be 229 USD/ton (up from 218).

In November, Ukrainian rapeseed exports fell by 31% compared to October, reaching 291,000 tons. For the first time this season, exports dropped below the previous year’s levels. Since the beginning of the 2024/25 season, exports have reached 2.6 million tons, the third-highest figure in history following record levels in the past two seasons, representing 79% of the country’s export potential for the year. Between July 1 and December 8, 2024, the EU imported 1.8 million tons of Ukrainian rapeseed, Australia 0.474 million tons, and Canada 0.113 million tons.

From July 1 to December 13, 2024, Ukraine exported 19.359 million tons of grain (compared to 14.697 million a year earlier), including 0.984 million tons in December (down from 1.6 million). This included 9.175 million tons of wheat (0.181 million in December), 1.898 million tons of barley (0.036 million), and 7.969 million tons of corn (0.76 million).

As of December 1, 2024, Kazakhstan's wheat stocks stood at 17.1 million tons (up from 12.3 million the previous year), including 14.93 million tons of milling wheat, 1.18 million tons of feed wheat, and 1.03 million tons of seed. Barley stocks were 2.57 million tons (up from 1.95 million), and corn stocks were 301,700 tons (up from 280,000).

According to EIA data as of December 6, 2024, ethanol stocks in the U.S. were 2.648 million barrels (down 2% for the week and up 548,000 compared to the previous year). Ethanol production during the week was 1.078 million barrels per day (up 1% from the previous week), and exports were 123,000 barrels per day (down 2%).

U.S. agricultural organizations have begun negotiations with the incoming administration of newly elected President Trump. The discussions include the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) with representatives from ADM and Cargill, the International Fresh Produce Association, and the National Council of Agricultural Workers. Concerns focus on deteriorating relations with China and Mexico, key buyers of U.S. products and sources of labor. While farmers were a significant voter base for Trump, his policies are expected to negatively impact them.

In December, palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline for the fourth consecutive month. Forecasts indicate a reduction of 5–8% due to heavy and prolonged rainfall. In November, production fell by 9.8%.

Authorities in Algeria are introducing a ban on the import of durum wheat for the entirety of 2025. The aim is to stimulate domestic production and reduce dependency on imports.