Grain Highlights 07.01.2025

The new U.S. president will most likely soften his initial plans to introduce a universal import tariff on all goods entering the country.

The new U.S. president will most likely soften his initial plans to introduce a universal import tariff on all goods entering the country. It had previously been announced that this tariff would range between 10% and 20%. Trump’s team is now considering an alternative where tariffs would only apply to critical sectors for the U.S., such as defense, medical devices, and energy.

China's Ministry of Agriculture has expanded the list of approved GM varieties for soybeans, corn, rice, and wheat cultivation. Seed producers include Syngenta and BASF. Some of these varieties will be designated solely for processing and feed purposes.

On January 7, 2025, rapeseed meal futures in China hit a three-week low after Canada’s current president announced plans to resign. This move is expected to lead to a warming of trade relations between the two countries. On that date, futures prices fell by 3.14% to 311 USD/ton. Canada is a major exporter of rapeseed globally, including to China.

Wheat prices in India are once again in an upward spiral. Consumer demand is high, while supply remains insufficient. Authorities periodically release 100,000 tons of wheat to major consumers, but this is far from meeting consumption levels. Last month, the government further reduced the maximum allowed storage limits for traders and processors. In recent years, Indian authorities have continuously reported record wheat harvests. Even if this is true, there appears to be a significant discrepancy with consumption levels. Over the past two seasons, India has been nearly neutral on the import/export balance, whereas it was previously a significant net exporter. Another factor is the government's policy to incentivize farmers, aimed at increasing production. For now, the main motivation for production is high prices, a burden borne by the state and end consumers. In 2025, it is anticipated that authorities will be forced to import larger quantities of wheat to stabilize the market.

Algeria is seeking to purchase 240,000 tons of feed corn for delivery at the end of January, with origins from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the EU.