Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair fell by 0.0064 to 1.0244. Meanwhile, the price of US WTI light crude oil rose by $2.61 per barrel to $76.57 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Friday, marking a third consecutive weekly gain, as winter conditions in parts of the U.S. and Europe boosted demand for heating fuels. Analysts at JPMorgan attribute the rise to growing concerns over supply disruptions amid limited oil inventories, cold temperatures across many regions of the United States and Europe, and improved sentiment regarding economic stimulus in China.

The U.S. Weather Service expects below-average temperatures in central and eastern parts of the country. Many regions in Europe were also hit by extreme cold, which is likely to persist with colder-than-usual weather for the start of the year. According to JPMorgan analysts, this will drive increased demand.

"In the first quarter of 2025, we anticipate a significant rise in global demand for 'black gold,' with an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day," the analysts noted.

For the past week, CBOT March SRW wheat futures rose by 1 1/2 cents to close at $5.30 3/4 per bushel.

Over the previous week, Chicago March corn futures increased by 19 3/4 cents to close at $4.70 1/2 per bushel.

Throughout the past week, CBOT March soybean futures climbed by 33 1/2 cents to close at $10.25 1/4 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending January 02.

*Source: USDA

Weather:

Over the past week, temperatures in the US Wheat Belt were low. At the end of the week, a winter storm hit the United States with the heaviest snowfall in the last 10 years. In Western Europe, mostly mild temperatures with light precipitation were observed. The Balkans and Ukraine experienced unseasonably mild weather with light to moderate rainfall. In Russia, it was cold with light snowfall. In India, temperatures were moderate with light rainfall. Good rainfall occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In eastern Australia, there was light rainfall, while the west remained dry. In central and northern Brazil, rainfall continued to be favorable, but the south and Argentina faced a moisture deficit.

Over the next 10 days, temperatures in the US Corn Belt will be very low with almost no precipitation. In the US Wheat Belt, temperatures will also be very low with no precipitation. In Western Europe, moderate temperatures with almost no precipitation are expected. The Balkans will experience mild temperatures without rainfall. Ukraine will see mostly mild temperatures with no precipitation. In Russia, predominantly cold temperatures with no precipitation are forecast. India will have warm weather without rainfall. In China, temperatures around 0°C with no precipitation are expected. In Australia, warm conditions with rainfall in the south and east are forecast. In Brazil, rainfall is expected across the country. In Argentina, very warm weather with good rainfall in many areas is anticipated. Overall, there are no significantly affected areas due to drought or extreme cold, although challenges persist in Argentina, where the expected rainfall is likely to ease the situation.

GRAIN EXPORTS:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

The export of wheat and soybeans from the United States was strong, while corn exports were moderate. Weekly export sales for all three crops were very weak, which is attributed to the year-end holidays. Wheat exports have significantly lagged behind the previous season. Grain exports from Ukraine have steadily decreased, ranging between 700,000 and 800,000 tons weekly.

On Friday, the USDA released its January report. Key data from the report include:

USDA  -  January 2024

Key Changes from the Report:

Wheat (USDA) – The global wheat balance was left unchanged. Russian exports are estimated at 46 million tons (previously 47 and 55.50), and Ukrainian exports at 16 million tons (previously 16.5 and 18.58).

Corn (USDA) – Corn production in China is projected at 294.92 million tons (up from 292 in December and 288.84 in 2023/24), while in the United States it is expected at 377.63 million tons (down from 384.64 and 389.67). Consumption in Brazil is forecasted at 87.5 million tons (up from 85.5 and 85), and in the United States at 321.71 million tons (down slightly from 322.98 and 321.92). Exports from Brazil are reduced to 44 million tons (down from 46 and 46.47), while Argentina’s corn exports are raised to 38 million tons (up from 37). China's imports are forecasted at 13 million tons (down from 14 and 23.41). Ending stocks in China are increased to 206.18 million tons (up from 204.27 and 211.29), and in the United States to 39.12 million tons (down from 44.15 and 44.79). Significant balance changes were noted for the United States, Brazil, and China.

Soybeans (USDA) – The U.S. soybean production is estimated at 118.84 million tons (down from 121.42 and 113.27). Ending stocks in Brazil are forecasted at 32.52 million tons (down from 33.52 and 27.97), and ending stocks in the United States are expected at 10.34 million tons (down from 12.80 and 9.32). Most significant changes again pertain to the United States.

Overall, the report triggered increases in corn and soybean prices in Chicago, primarily due to reductions in the US balance sheets.

Wheat – On Friday, Chicago wheat futures declined while Paris wheat futures increased. During the week ending January 2, 2025, U.S. wheat export sales totaled 111,309 tons (down from 140,591 the prior week and 128,058 the previous year), with export commitments at 17.02 million tons (up from 15.39). Weekly exports reached 414,265 tons (up from 381,906 and down from 586,638), with season-to-date totals at 12.36 million tons (up from 9.94). As of December 1, 2025, U.S. wheat stocks were at 42.68 million tons (up 4.03 from December 1, 2023, and slightly above projections). Winter wheat acreage in the United States is 34.115 million acres (up 0.725 from the prior year), including HRW at 24 million acres (+0.213), SRW at 6.44 million acres (+0.378), and white wheat at 3.64 million acres (+0.099). Snowfall in the US Wheat Belt is expected to protect crops from cold temperatures. In India, wheat prices reached record highs, hinting at potential imports despite the upcoming production, which is expected to be strong but still below domestic demand levels.

Corn – On Friday, corn futures rose in both Chicago and Paris. The USDA lowered its average U.S. corn yield estimate for 2024 by 3.8 bushels/acre to 179.3 bushels/acre—a significant reduction. Harvested acreage was increased by 0.196 million acres to 14.867 million acres. The average corn price in the United States was raised by 0.15 USD/bushel to 4.25 USD/bushel. Weekly U.S. corn export sales were 444,950 tons (down from 776,992 and 487,609), with export commitments at 39.25 million tons (up from 30.28). Weekly exports totaled 863,730 tons (down from 1,002,503), with season-to-date totals at 16.61 million tons (up from 13.28). The significant reduction in average U.S. corn yields raises questions about relying on trendline yields for future forecasts.

Soybeans – On Friday, soybean and soyoil futures rose in Chicago, while soymeal futures declined. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola in Canada also increased. The USDA reduced the average U.S. soybean yield estimate by 1 bushel/acre to 50.7 bushels/acre, while harvested acreage was decreased by 0.25 million acres to 86.05 million acres. U.S. soybean stocks as of December 1, 2024, were estimated at 84.3 million tons (up 2.66 and down 3.05). Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were 286,671 tons (down from 484,679 and 280,398), with export commitments at 40.39 million tons (up from 36.61). Weekly exports reached 1,580,148 tons (down from 1,704,121 and up from 862,277), with season-to-date totals at 29.96 million tons (up from 23.56). Soymeal sales were 144,918 tons, and soyoil sales were 34,634 tons.

China – Authorities reduced their 2024/25 corn import forecast by 31% to 9 million tons (down from 13 in December). Imports for 2023/24 were 23.41 million tons according to the USDA. Domestic corn production is estimated at 294.92 million tons. Despite lower imports, strong demand from feed producers and potential purchases for state reserves will likely support corn prices.

South America – A record soybean production of 172–175 million tons is expected. Recent forecasts by major analysts now exceed 170 million tons, except for the USDA's projection of 169 million tons. Harvesting in Mato Grosso has begun, but concerns linger about yield potential due to earlier cloudy weather and heavy rainfall.

Rainfall Outlook – Additional rains are expected in southern Brazil and Argentina, with totals of 50–75 mm, which will provide temporary relief but are insufficient for a full soil moisture recovery. Early corn and soybean crops in Argentina require significant water as they enter critical development stages. In Brazil, moisture levels remain adequate, and early soybean varieties are already being harvested.

Outlook – The USDA kept the global wheat balance largely unchanged. Global wheat supplies remain tight despite new productions from Argentina and Australia. Balance sheets are expected to remain constrained until summer as Black Sea region exports gradually decline.

U.S. Economy – In December, U.S. non-farm job growth reached 256,000 (up from 155,000 forecasted and 212,000 in November). Unemployment remained low at 4.1%, indicating a tightening labor market. Strong economic data suggests the Fed may delay interest rate cuts.

Conclusion – Crop prices are expected to rise in the coming months. Soybean and soymeal could face pressure due to Brazil’s record soybean production, though demand for biofuels might mitigate these effects. Palm oil prices in Malaysia remain firm, likely supporting soyoil prices. As 2025 progresses, market dynamics will evolve, with new policies under President Trump’s second term expected to influence global markets.

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

Throughout the week, FOB prices for agricultural commodities moved in different directions.

Wheat: FOB wheat prices declined. The FOB price of Bulgarian wheat is 234 USD/ton (-USD 3/ton for the week and +USD 3/ton compared to the previous week). The FOB price of Australian milling wheat is 224 USD/ton (-USD 41 for the week and +USD 1 compared to the previous week), wheat with 10% protein is priced at 219 USD/ton (-USD 3 for the week and +USD 1 compared to the previous week), and Australian feed wheat is 190 USD/ton (USD 192 the previous week). Australian wheat prices are very competitive at the start of their export season.

Corn: FOB corn prices continued to rise. During the week, the FOB price of Brazilian corn increased by 6 USD/ton, reaching 218 USD/ton (unchanged compared to the previous week).

Soybeans: FOB soybean prices increased. The FOB price of Brazilian soybeans rose by 6 USD/ton (-USD 10 the previous week) to 380 USD/ton. Brazil is harvesting its soybean crop, with expectations for record results. US soybeans remain consistently more expensive than Brazilian soybeans, a situation likely to persist until at least August.

Over the past week, global oilseed prices fluctuated in different directions, with more significant amplitude changes this time around.

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):