SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports in January at 2 million tons (compared to 3.4 million in December and 4.1 million in November). Barley exports are expected to reach 100,000 tons (down from 150,000 in December), and corn exports will also amount to 100,000 tons (down from 250,000). The total grain export from Russia in January is projected to be 2.2 million tons.

For the week starting January 13, 2025, Russia's export tax on wheat decreased to 4,346.1 rubles/ton (down from 4,768.7 a week earlier), the export tax on barley was revised down to 2,220.1 rubles/ton (down from 2,781.8), and the export tax on corn to 4,366.5 rubles/ton (down from 4,894.8). The export tax on sunseed oil for January is 16,067 rubles/ton (+170%), and for sunseed meal, the export tax is at 4,771 rubles/ton (up from 3,788).

According to TAS Agro, Ukraine’s rapeseed acreage in 2025 will be 1.1 million hectares (compared to 1.4 million in 2024). The decline is attributed to prolonged drought conditions in the fall of 2024.

Between July 1, 2024, and January 13, 2025, Ukraine exported 23.256 million tons of grain (compared to 20.563 million a year earlier), including 1.024 million tons in January (down from 2.097 million). This includes 10.257 million tons of wheat (up from 0.344 million), 2.008 million tons of barley (up from 9,000 tons), and 10.578 million tons of corn (up from 0.669 million).

Sunseed prices in Ukraine are gradually rising due to increased demand from processors. At the end of 2024, sunseed prices were at 595 USD/ton, followed by an increase of 5–10 USD/ton. The spot market price for sunflower oil is 1,050–1,060 USD/ton CPT. Recent prices for sunflower seeds with 46% oil content on a DAP Ukraine basis are 505–515 USD/ton, while seeds with 44% oil content are priced at 585–590 USD/ton DAP Bulgaria (central) and 575–580 USD/ton C&F Bulgaria (port).

According to Malaysia’s Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB), the prices of crude palm oil (CPO) in Malaysia are unlikely to remain high beyond the first quarter of 2025. The premium of palm oil over its competitors is unsustainable in the long term. In October, the price of crude palm oil rose by over 15% to 940 USD/ton (up from $832 a year earlier).

In 2024, Egypt imported 14.2 million tons of wheat (up from 10.8 million in 2023), the highest level in the past 10 years. Government purchases for imports amounted to 6.2 million tons (+30%).