Grain Highlights 15.01.2025

Conab projects a 2024/25 grain and oilseed productions in Brazil of 322.3 million tons (+8% compared to 2023/24).

In the 2023/24 season, sunseed exports from Russia reached 450,000 tons (+190,000 compared to 2022/23). Over the past five years, exports have grown by 87,000 tons, and over the last 10 years by 315,000 tons. For 2024/25, USDA forecasts exports to be 350,000 tons.

In 2024, Russia exported 5.7 million tons of sunseed oil (+31% compared to 2023), marking a new record and exceeding the 5-million-ton threshold for the first time. Strong purchases by India, totaling 2.2 million tons, contributed significantly to the record.

FranceAgriMer has again lowered its forecast for soft wheat exports from France in 2024/25 to 9.74 million tons (9.76 million tons in the previous estimate and -42% compared to 2023/24). Soft wheat exports outside the EU are projected at 3.5 million tons (-66%) and to EU countries at 6.14 million tons (-3%). The 2024/25 soft wheat production is expected to be 23.42 million tons (31.87 million tons), with highly variable quality.

According to USDA data, winter wheat areas in the United States in 2025 will total 13.82 million hectares (+2.3% compared to 2024’s 13.51 million hectares), the second highest in the past decade. Kansas accounts for 2.99 million hectares, Oklahoma 1.72 million hectares, Texas 2.35 million hectares, Montana 0.91 million hectares, and Colorado 0.85 million hectares. As of January 5, 2025, 47% of the crops were in good or excellent condition (55% in late November and 43% a year earlier).

The American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) have praised the U.S. Treasury's initiative to promote the production of clean biodiesel fuel 45Z, which is expected to boost sector investments. The Treasury considers used cooking oil (UCO) unsuitable for 45Z production.

Conab projects a 2024/25 grain and oilseed productions in Brazil of 322.3 million tons (+8% compared to 2023/24). Acreage for these crops was 81.4 million hectares (+2%). Soybean production is expected to reach a record 166.3 million tons (+19%), with exports of 105.4 million tons and soybean meal at 22 million tons. Corn production will also set a record at 119.6 million tons (+3%), with exports at 34 million tons (-4.5%) and stocks recovering to 3.5 million tons. Wheat production is estimated at 7.89 million tons (-2.6%).

In December, India imported 420,000 tons of soyoil (152,600 tons in December 2023), according to SEA data. Sunseed oil imports totaled 264,800 tons (260,800 tons), and total vegetable oil imports reached 1.23 million tons (1.31 million tons).

Wheat stocks in Egypt are sufficient to meet domestic demand for the next 3.8 months. GASC reports that the government aims to extend this period to six months by purchasing up to 0.9 million tons of wheat.

Jordan purchased 60,000 tons of milling wheat from a tender seeking 120,000 tons. The deal price was 267.7 USD/ton C&F, with delivery between March 15–31, 2025. The tender attracted bids from Cargill, Viterra, Al Dahra, Aston, Buildcom, Olam, Ameropa, and Buildcom.

On January 14, 2025, Canada approved the $34 billion merger between Bunge and Viterra. The deal, announced in 2023, has already been approved by the EU and Ukraine but awaits China’s decision.