SovEcon forecasts wheat production in Russia for 2025 at 78.7 million tons (compared to 82.4 million tons in 2024). The share of crops in poor condition has increased to 37%. The warm weather has melted the accumulated snow cover, which is now largely absent.

Russian authorities are considering the possibility of restricting food exports if a shortage develops in the country. The measures vary, ranging from high export taxes to quotas and direct export bans. In September, the export tax on Russian corn was 750 rubles/ton, while as of January 17, 2025, it stands at 5,041.7 rubles/ton.

Rusagrotrans forecasts wheat exports from Russia in January 2025 at 2.4 million tons (compared to the previous estimate of 2–2.1 million tons). This is the lowest level in the past four years, with exports in January 2022 amounting to 1.9 million tons. The export forecast for February is 2.5 million tons (compared to 4.4 million tons in February 2024). Between January 1–16, wheat exports reached 0.9 million tons.

Between July 1, 2024, and January 22, 2025, Ukraine exported 24.471 million tons of grain (compared to 22.246 million tons a year earlier), including 2.239 million tons in January (3.682 million tons last year). Exports included 10.428 million tons of wheat (8.722 million tons previously), 2.028 million tons of barley (1.272 million tons), and 11.598 million tons of corn (12 million tons).

According to Safras & Mercado data as of January 17, 2025, soybean harvesting in Brazil has covered 1.1% of the planted areas (compared to 0.2% a week earlier, 5.1% a year earlier, and 3.3% on average over the past five years).

China has suspended soybean purchases from five Brazilian companies, citing that their products do not meet phytosanitary requirements. No deadline for lifting the ban has been set, but it is expected to remain in place until the issues are resolved.

A survey conducted among traders suggests that the price of palm oil will rise by 5.4% in 2025, reaching 972.07 USD/ton. The increase is driven by Indonesia's implementation of the B40 biodiesel mandate. Earlier, authorities announced plans to introduce a B50 mandate in 2026. Between January 1–20, palm oil exports from Malaysia totaled 653,340 tons, down 22% from the previous month. The USDA forecasts Indonesia’s industrial palm oil consumption to reach a record 14.5 million tons in 2025, which is 1 million tons less than in 2024.

On January 21, 2025, Jordan purchased 60,000 tons of milling wheat at a price of 268 USD/ton C&F, with delivery scheduled for April.