Wheat

Chicago Dec ’25 SRW started Thursday around $5.16¼/bu, with the complex still on the back foot after Wednesday’s soft close and fresh September deliveries on the CBOT. Preliminary open interest rose sharply, suggesting new selling interest, while the spring-wheat harvest hit 72% and NOAA’s 7-day map flagged 1–2 inches across parts of the Southern Plains—context that has rallies meeting hedging pressure into the morning. Export sales are delayed to Friday due to the holiday-shortened week.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 corn began near $4.17¾/bu, fractionally weaker as traders awaited the EIA’s weekly ethanol update. Producer surveys continue to orbit ~187.5 bpa and 16.63 bb output, Crop Progress held at 69% good/excellent with notable state-level slippage, and the cmdtyView national cash corn gauge eased to about $3.74¾—all while preliminary open interest ticked higher midweek. Export sales are also pushed to Friday.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 soybeans opened around $10.25½/bu, softer in early trade after a midweek slide. The board digested additional September deliveries in beans and products, a USDA-reported 185,000 MT soymeal sale to the Philippines for 2025/26, and condition ratings down to 65% on the week; an Allendale survey pegged yield near 53.28 bpa and production around 4.268 bb, keeping sentiment guarded at the bell.

Germany’s agriculture ministry said 2025 winter-wheat output will climb 26.3% to 22.45 MMT, lifting total grains to ~44.73 MMT despite late-summer rains. Early quality checks showed ~12% protein (vs 11.6% last year), and rapeseed is seen up 9.4% y/y to ~3.96 MMT—a combination that improves EU supply optics and edible-oil balance into autumn.

Australia’s wheat outlook brightened: 2025/26 production is now 32.3 MMT, up 7.3% from the prior update, with satellite indicators near or above median across major states and short-term forecasts calling for additional beneficial rains. A near-normal Sep–Nov pattern would sustain this improved trajectory and add competition on global FOBs.

Weather is a major cross-current. In the Northern Plains, another strong front today ushers in cold air and possible frosts into the weekend, a risk that could clip late-season yield potential. The Central/Southern Plains and Midwest face back-to-back fronts bringing showers and well-below-normal temperatures, with isolated frost chances in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Europe stays unsettled with repeated waves of rain beneficial to immature summer crops and soil prep for winter wheat, while the Black Sea remains comparatively dry—problematic for the tail of this season and the start of winter-wheat planting later this month.

Corn’s energy tie-in is front and center: the market looks for U.S. weekly ethanol production to edge steady-to-lower versus last week and for stocks to slip modestly, a combo that can sway nearby basis and processor margins as harvest ramps.

Demand lanes for U.S. corn remain sturdy into 2025/26. Outstanding sales have climbed to 18.78 MMT as of Aug 21, with Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Taiwan leading—and Vietnam emerging as a new buyer at 1.3 MMT in 2024/25 plus 277.5k t already on the books for 2025/26. The backdrop argues for U.S. corn exports near 75.95 MMT next season, even as Europe/North Africa supplement feed-grain shortfalls with U.S. origin.

Competition will be real. Brazil and Argentina have boosted corn shipments to Africa and the Middle East, though flows to Asia and Central America have eased; with normal production, 2025/26 exports are projected at 40.0 MMT (Brazil) and 36.5 MMT (Argentina). Meanwhile, Ukraine’s tight supply saw August corn exports plunge to 239k t, with 20.5 MMT in 2024/25 and 22.81 MMT projected for 2025/26.

Oilseeds carry their own headline risk. Brazil’s soybean area is set to expand just ~1.5% in 2025/26—below the historical 3.5% pace—yet a record ~175 MMT harvest is still plausible on average yields (vs 169.7 MMT in 2024/25 per Conab), a scenario that would loosen the global bean balance if weather cooperates.

Vegoils watch the Canada–China front: Beijing’s preliminary 75.8% duties on Canadian canola seed have escalated a dispute, and Ottawa says top officials—including the prime minister—will engage to resolve it. With China historically Canada’s largest canola-seed market, prolonged tariffs could redirect seed and oil flows and ripple into soy/palm spreads.

Input markets are pausing in Brazil ahead of India’s urea tender results. Talk centered on urea around $455/mt CFR within last week’s $440–$470 band, ammonium sulfate slipped to $175–$180/mt, MAP eased to $710–$730/mt, and potash held $345–$355/mt—price action that subtly improves growers’ cost curves into the planting window.

Moisture returned to Ukraine, with late-August rains ending a prolonged dry spell across central, southern and eastern regions and enabling soil prep for winter sowing. Authorities report 377,100 ha of winter rapeseed already planted (33.8% of plan), with winter wheat set to follow—an encouraging start for 2026 supply potential.