Wheat

Chicago SRW December ’25 settled at $5.50¼/bu, up 6¾¢ on Tuesday, with HRW firmer and spring wheat softer. Talk of Chinese interest in US wheat underpinned the bid even as export-sales confirmation is constrained by the federal shutdown. EU wheat exports reached 8.03 MMT since July 1, modestly below last year, and steady Black Sea/EU FOB values near ~$230/MT kept futures sensitive to any weather or logistics surprise.

Corn

December ’25 corn closed at $4.31½/bu, down 2¾¢. A robust US inspections print of 1.669 MMT led by Mexico helped cushion losses, but fast harvest progress and private yield ideas near ~185.5 bpa capped rallies. Brazil remains a cross-current: CONAB lifted 2025/26 ethanol output to 36.16 bn liters, and Center–South first-crop corn planting advanced to 60%, adding supply optimism once weather cooperates.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans settled at $11.08¼/bu, down 11½¢ after midday recovery failed to stick. Deliveries rose again and the US cash bean average eased, while Brazilian FOB offers slipped enough to draw Chinese buying interest. Market participants continued to parse the US–China tone shift and third-party demand—Bangladesh lifted planned US soy/meal purchases to $1.25 bn over the next 12 months—against uneven South American weather.

Global grain markets entered midweek balancing optimism from renewed US–China engagement against persistent weather threats across the Southern Hemisphere. China’s state-owned importers are cautiously returning to both American and Brazilian origin soybeans as trade relations thaw, while logistical and climate headlines from Brazil to the Black Sea continue to drive price sentiment across commodities.

After months of tariff-driven restraint, China’s buyers have resumed booking significant South American soybean volumes, capitalizing on cheaper Brazilian offers now priced below comparable US Gulf cargoes. Traders confirmed roughly ten December and ten March–July shipments out of Brazil, signaling that the world’s largest importer is diversifying ahead of the 2026 season. This shift coincides with Washington and Beijing’s new agreement for China to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans before year-end and 25 million tons annually over the next three years. Analysts note, however, that execution depends on Beijing’s next policy move—particularly any reduction of the still-standing tariffs on US agricultural goods.

In a separate trade breakthrough, Australia is preparing its first canola shipment to China in five years, a development that could reshape the global vegetable oil trade. The vessel Armonia A is loading approximately 60,000 tons in Esperance and will sail for Qingdao later this week. At least three test cargoes are scheduled for Q4 under China’s strict <1% impurity trial rule. If successful, Australian exporters could regain long-term access to the Chinese market, which they lost in 2020 amid phytosanitary disputes, at a time when Canada—previously China’s dominant canola supplier—is still facing trade frictions with Beijing.

Elsewhere, Canada has struck a canola export facilitation agreement with Pakistan, seeking to offset the losses from China’s recent anti-dumping duties on Canadian imports. The pact highlights a broader reconfiguration of oilseed trade routes, as traditional flows shift under geopolitical and regulatory pressures.

On the weather front, forecasts point to another round of heavy rain for Argentina’s Pampas and southern Brazil, potentially hampering the wheat harvest and delaying spring crop plantings. The Cerrado region, responsible for a large share of Brazil’s soybean output, continues to face inconsistent rainfall and excessive heat—raising replanting concerns and slowing progress. By October 30, soybean planting reached 47% of intended area versus 54% a year earlier, while summer corn sowing in the Center–South stood at 60%, broadly matching last season’s pace. In contrast, Central-West Brazil enjoys relatively stable showers, which could support emerging crops if conditions persist.

In North America, the outlook remains mostly dry, with warm temperatures aiding the final stretch of US harvest. Analysts expect corn and soybean harvests to be 85% and 91% complete, respectively, though official USDA progress reports are on hold due to the federal shutdown. Across Europe, temperatures stay above average with limited rainfall, while Typhoon Kalmaegi brought localized flooding in parts of the Philippines and coastal Vietnam, raising logistical challenges for Southeast Asian feed and rice buyers.

Russia’s wheat exports remain a stabilizing factor in the global grain matrix. Consultancy SovEcon lifted its 2025/26 export projection to 43.8 MMT, supported by strong import demand and production above earlier estimates. October shipments reached 5.4 MMT, with early November pacing toward a potential record month, keeping Black Sea FOB prices steady around $230/MT. Yet analysts warn of possible seasonal slowdowns ahead and intensified competition from large Argentine and Australian harvests.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has completed its harvest, gathering 27.1 MMT of grain—including 20.3 MMT of wheat and 4.3 MMT of oilseeds—while Ukraine’s winter crop seeding is 90% complete at 5.9 million hectares, underscoring robust regional supply prospects heading into 2026.

Lastly, in the edible oil segment, Malaysian palm oil maintained strength above 4,100 ringgit/ton, with producer IOI cautioning that La Niña–driven rains could disrupt output through February. IOI also confirmed plans to double organic palm production and expand coconut processing capacity by 2027—moves that could gradually reshape global vegetable oil balances and downstream feed costs.