Chicago wheat futures began Friday’s session slightly softer, with December 2025 CBOT SRW trading around $5.26 per bushel, about 1½ cents below Thursday’s close at $5.27. The wheat complex is extending this week’s pullback after Thursday’s 8½–10 cent losses in Chicago, 7¾–10 cents lower in KC HRW and 3¾–8½ cents weaker in Minneapolis spring wheat. Open interest is contracting as December positions are rolled or closed, while fresh fundamental news is mixed: USDA confirmed a private sale of 132,000 tons of white wheat to China and weekly export sales reached a marketing-year high of nearly 888,000 tons, yet updated International Grains Council data showing a 3-million-ton increase in world wheat output and unchanged global stocks at 275 million tons has reinforced the perception of ample supply and encouraged further long liquidation.

Corn futures in Chicago opened Friday near $4.26 per bushel for the December 2025 contract, fractionally below Thursday’s settlement at $4.26½ as prices continue to grind lower after a week of modest losses. The previous session saw contracts down 1–3¾ cents despite exceptionally strong weekly US export bookings of 2.26 million tons for 2025/26, the largest so far this marketing year and nearly 85% above the same week last year. Open interest is edging higher overall, even as sizable volumes exit the expiring December contract in favor of March. Markets have largely “looked through” the bullish sales data and a trio of South Korean tenders totaling 329,000 tons, focusing instead on only a marginal upward revision to world corn production and stocks in the IGC balance sheet and a generally comfortable global corn position.

Soybean futures started Friday’s trade under light pressure, with January 2026 CBOT beans hovering around $11.20 per bushel, roughly 2½ cents below Thursday’s close at $11.22½ after front-month contracts shed 9–13¾ cents the previous day. The market continues to “sell the fact” as Chinese demand materializes: weekly US soybean export sales of about 919,000 tons came in mid-range of expectations and at a three-week high, while USDA’s daily reporting system confirmed another 462,000 tons sold to China on top of earlier deals, taking known Chinese purchases since early October to 1.812 million tons. Even so, futures remain capped by a backdrop of record Brazilian production, softer soymeal and soyoil, and IGC data trimming global soybean output by 2 million tons but also cutting ending stocks to 77 million tons, underscoring that the market is still well supplied.

The overarching headline for today’s session comes from Washington, where President Trump signed an executive order removing the 40% tariffs imposed in July on a broad basket of Brazilian food products, including beef, coffee, cocoa and fruit. The move, part of a wider rollback of food-related tariffs, immediately improves the competitiveness of Brazilian supplies into the US and may trigger refunds of duties already collected on eligible cargoes. Brazil normally provides about one-third of US coffee imports and is an increasingly important beef supplier; with thousands of bags of coffee reportedly held in bonded warehouses waiting for tariff clarity, traders expect a quick release of those stocks into the US market. The reversal is also politically motivated, as food-price inflation has weighed heavily on Trump’s approval ratings, and it adds another bearish undertone for competing protein and softs markets as cheaper Brazilian product flows back into the US.

Fresh US export data is another key driver for today. Weekly sales for the week of October 2 show a strong across-the-board performance: 2.26 million tons of corn, 924,000 tons of soybeans and 888,000 tons of wheat, all sharply above the prior week and with wheat setting a new marketing-year high. Egypt and Japan stood out as top buyers for soybeans and corn respectively, while robust pork and beef export sales – led by Mexico for pork and South Korea for beef – reinforce the broader demand backdrop for feed grains and oilseeds. USDA’s separate daily announcements of soybeans and white wheat to China confirm that the recent thaw in US–China trade relations is translating into real tonnage, even if futures are currently more focused on competing South American supply and currency effects.

On the supply side, several regional crop updates continue to tilt the global grain balance toward abundance, especially in wheat. Russia’s SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat harvest estimate to 88.6 million tons, citing record yields in Siberia and solid performance in the Volga and Ural regions, even though the southern export hub remains relatively weaker. Western Australia, the country’s top wheat-producing state, is on track for its biggest wheat crop in three years at 13.05 million tons, with total grain output potentially reaching a record 26.62 million tons once canola and barley are included. India added to the heavy supply narrative with a record 2024/25 foodgrain output of 357.73 million tons, including an all-time high rice harvest, sizable maize output and strong pulses and oilseeds production, while Ukraine reported 50.9 million tons of grain already harvested, on pace for a 56-million-ton crop similar to last year. These updates, combined with IGC’s slight upward revision of global grain stocks to 619 million tons, reinforce the theme of comfortable global availability even as weather risks simmer.

Oilseed markets are digesting a more nuanced picture. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported soybean planting advancing 12 percentage points to cover 24.6% of the planned 17.6 million hectares, but flooding in Buenos Aires province is delaying fieldwork and puts as much as 1.5 million hectares at risk of going unplanted. Late-season corn sowing has reached 37.3% of the intended 7.8 million hectares and is in generally good condition, while the wheat harvest is 20.3% complete with above-average yields and a record 24-million-ton crop expected. In Ukraine, however, soybean plantings are set to decline again in 2026 after the imposition of a 10% export duty undermined profitability and slowed shipments, pushing farmers to shift area toward winter wheat and barley and away from oilseeds and corn. With high temperatures and drought having devastated sunflower fields in southern Ukraine and reduced corn yields, the Black Sea oilseed complex is facing stresses that contrast sharply with the record potential in Brazil.

Weather remains a central risk factor for the months ahead and is closely watched in today’s trading. In the US, a warm pattern dominates for now, but successive systems are bringing moderate to heavy rain to the Central and Southern Plains and Midwest, boosting soil moisture for winter wheat while also narrowing the remaining window for fieldwork. A major cold front early next week is expected to send temperatures sharply lower across the Northern Plains and Midwest, pushing winter wheat more quickly into dormancy and beginning to freeze soils; in the Delta, meanwhile, Mississippi River levels remain critically low despite incoming rain, continuing to constrain grain logistics. In South America, a stalled front is keeping central and northern Brazil wet and cool while southern Brazil receives only light, irregular showers – a pattern that, if it persists into December, could tip key corn and soybean areas into moisture stress. Analysts warn that drought risks are likely to intensify from southern Brazil through Argentina and Paraguay next month, potentially affecting yield prospects just as the region enters the heart of the growing season.

Policy developments beyond the US–Brazil tariff decision are also shaping sentiment in today’s session. In Russia, the floating export duty on wheat will rise by 14.6% to 232.3 rubles per ton from November 26, a modest tightening that reflects slightly higher indicative export prices but leaves duties on barley and corn at zero. In Brussels, EU member states are pushing for a one-year delay to the bloc’s landmark deforestation regulation covering imports of soybeans, coffee, cocoa and palm oil, along with simplifications and a longer grace period for small operators; the news sparked a sharp drop in New York cocoa futures and is being interpreted as short-term relief for supply chains that had braced for tougher traceability rules. In the US, EPA data showing higher generation of ethanol (D6) and biodiesel (D4) blending credits in October hints at steady biofuel demand, while comments from agricultural officials that Washington is open to lifting tariffs on certain EU foods, including beef and citrus, point toward a broader effort to ease grocery prices. At the same time, political uncertainty around the delayed US Farm Bill – unlikely to see a House vote before 2026 – leaves questions about longer-term support levels and safety-net design for US farmers, which will influence planting decisions and risk appetite in upcoming seasons.